A new ADP jobs report estimated that the U.S. economy lost more than 30,000 private sector jobs in September.
Newsweek reached out to the White House for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report was set to be released on Friday, but could be delayed as legislators remain at odds over a continuing resolution to end a federal government shutdown. ADP has released its latest report on the jobs market, providing an alternative economic indicator in lieu of the official report. However, some economists are warning that the numbers may not accurately reflect the official report.
What To Know
The number of private sector jobs fell from about 134,558,000 in August to 134,526,000 in September—a loss of about 32,000 jobs, according to the ADP report. Industries such as leisure and hospitality, as well as professional and business services, were hit the hardest, while the education and health services industries saw an increase in job openings.
“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, wrote in the report.
George Washington University economist Tara Sinclair told Newsweek that while ADP has worked to improve its methodology, these numbers may still not be as reliable as the official data from the BLS.
“We have seen cases before where they have reported pretty substantially different numbers,” she said.
It would not be particularly surprising to see job losses at this point in the economic cycle, but that does not necessarily indicate an economic downturn on its own, she said.
While President Donald Trump’s tariffs may be a factor, his crackdown on immigration could be playing a more significant role in the reduction of job numbers, according to Sinclair.
“When we think about jobs being created, this isn’t just about posting job openings. This is about a match between an employer and a worker, so one reason we’re clearly going to see slowdown in terms of employment numbers, is because there aren’t the workers out there to match with jobs from the employer perspective,” she said.
However, this trend continuing for multiple months would be of greater concern, Sinclair said.
Some Trump critics responded to the report with criticism toward the president.
“Oh look. 32k jobs lost in September. Trump is killing jobs, raising prices and shutting down the government,” Neera Tanden, the former director of the Domestic Policy Council during the Biden administration, posted on X.
Political commentator Brian Krassenstein described the numbers as “terrible.”
“Trump’s economy lost 32,000 jobs last Month according to ADP Dow Jones had been looking for an INCREASE of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000,” Krassenstein wrote on X.
Others, however, urged caution when looking at the new report.
“The shutdown robs us of this Friday’s jobs report. The ADP report has stepped into the void. It says jobs fell by -32k in September. But be careful: The absence of the BLS data doesn’t make the ADP numbers any more reliable. And they haven’t been very useful in the past,” Justin Wolfers said on X.
What People Are Saying
Tahra Hoops, director of economic analysis at the Chamber of Progress, on X: “U.S. private employers cut 32K jobs in September, per ADP. Annual rebenchmarking reduced totals by 43K, showing hiring momentum continues to fade, confirming that companies have been slow to higher. This can most likely be attributed to elevated economic uncertainty.”
Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, on X: “I’ve been telling you all for months that we’re in a recession. This is what it looks like.”
What Happens Next
The timeline for when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its official number is unclear, but it will remain a key economic indicator amid concerns about tariffs.
