Created on September 26, 2025

Potential signal:

• As I have stated previously, I’m perfectly comfortable buying this currency pair right here with a stop loss below.
• I would use the 1.3840 level as a potential stop loss, and 1.42 as a potential target.

The US dollar has risen again against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the crucial 1.39 level. Ultimately this is a market that I think continues to look toward the 1.40 level, possibly even higher than that.

It’s worth noting that the US dollar rallied against almost everything during the trading session on Thursday, and the Canadian dollar will be any different. After all, GDP numbers out of America blew estimates out of the water, and that means that a lot of people are going to be looking at the Federal Reserve as potentially having to keep their interest rates higher for longer, while the Bank of Canada clearly has a lot of issues with the Canadian economy as they recently lost 65,000 jobs, and of course economic numbers out of Canada have been struggling for a while.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is starting to turn to the upside, as we are well above the 200 Day EMA at the moment, and now are starting to look toward the 1.40 level above and clearing that area could really open up the US dollar to a much bigger move. Short-term pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities as the interest rate differential favors the US dollar, and the Canadian economy will continue to suffer at the hands of the tariffs that are starting to crush some of their industries, as the United States ends up being responsible for 25% of Canadian GDP. If the trade situation continues to deteriorate with the United States and the Canadians, it is much more detrimental to Canada than it is the USA.

Furthermore, we have the 50 Day EMA race to break above the 1.3800 level and look likely to try to break above the 200 Day EMA which currently sits at the 1.3864 level. If we get that, then the so-called “golden cross” kicks off. I remain bullish about this currency pair.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.