The USD/BRL continues to trend lower and speculators who have been pursuing the downwards motion of the currency pair have hopefully profited as support levels prove vulnerable.

The USD/BRL closed near the 5.4582 ratio yesterday. Lows produced on Tuesday tested the 5.4175 mark briefly before reversing higher. The bearish trend in the USD/BRL has taken on a solid tone. On the 8th of April the USD/BRL briefly spiked close to the 6.0800 ratio. Traders may want to keep this in mind, but not become overly paranoid about the move higher.

On the 3rd of April the USD/BRL was trading near the 5.6100 level, this before President Trump scared the financial markets with tough talk regarding ongoing tariff negotiations which were seemingly going badly. However, after Trump granted nations more time to negotiate, the highs seen on the 8th of April above the 6.0000 mark, suddenly turned lower. There is another tariff deadline on the 9th of July approaching, but things are likely to be different this time.

Weaker USD Centric Sentiment

Financial institutions are much more calm regarding tariff implications, and President Trump has shown an ability to negotiate and offer more time to nations making progress. The USD/BRL is correlating well to broad Forex market conditions. The USD has been weaker across the Forex board since the second week of April and many major currencies are touching important levels versus the USD. The USD/BRL is testing levels not seen since the first week of October 2024.

While there are still concerns regarding the fiscal transparency of the Brazilian government and mistrust from financial institutions regarding domestic spending policies in Brazil, the USD/BRL has been able to must enough trajectory downwards to challenge lower price levels seen since July. Lula da Silve took control of Brazil for his third term as President in January 2023, this after winning the October 2022 election. The USD/BRL was trading slightly above 5.0000 when Lula da Silva took power in January of 2023.

Short and Near-Term Trend in USD/BRL

While there are certainly political concerns in financial institutions because Lula da Silva is a Socialist, the USD/BRL has shown an ability to correlate with the broad markets and this cannot be disputed. The trend downwards may seem illogical to some, but it should not be argued against as the USD/BRL continues to fight lower.

• The ability to break below the 5.5000 last Friday and sustained lower depths show that big traders are still leaning into risk appetite.
• Yes, there are risk events ahead and traders need to always guard against sudden volatility. U.S job numbers will be published tomorrow.
• And the U.S will celebrate Independence Day this Friday, which mean Forex volumes will be low.
• And then there is the tariff deadline on the 9th of July.
• However, the USD/BRL trajectory lower is not a mistake and as long as USD centric weakness remains a factor, traders may want to continue to pursue lower depths for the USD/BRL while using solid risk management as always.

Brazilian Real Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 5.4670

Current Support: 5.4520

High Target: 5.4900

Low Target: 5.4250

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