Donald Trump’s policies risks alienating millions of international travelers and could cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars due to a sharp drop in tourism, a damning report says.
Amid the president’s immigration crackdown, travel bans and sweeping global tariffs, the U.S. is expected to be the only one out of 184 countries to see foreign visitor spending fall in 2025, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.
The study suggests that the U.S. economy is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international spending this year alone – but the actual shortfall might be much greater.
Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, had originally forecast a nine percent increase in foreign travel earlier this year before revising its estimate to reflect “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric.”
Based on the research firm’s original projections, the U.S. economy was expected to gain $16.3 billion in revenue, according to an analysis by Forbes. Instead, the total deficit may be as high as $28.8 billion.
“This is a wake-up call for the U.S. government,” Julia Simpson, president and CEO of WTTC, said in a statement in May. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
The projected decline is driven by an estimated 20 percent drop in Canadian visitors through 2025, who spent $20.5 billion and made up almost a quarter of foreign tourists who came to the U.S. last year.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s tourism industry is expected to boom with WTTC projections for 2025 indicating a record $281 billion uptick to the country’s GDP.
The potential backward slide comes amid alarming reports of foreign tourists having their travel plans upended, with some even detained by U.S. authorities.
It included Charlotte Pohl, 19, and Maria Lepère, 18, from Rostock, Germany, who had their hopes of island-hopping Hawaii dashed and were denied entry into the U.S. despite allegedly holding the required Electronic System for Travel Authorization.
Total foreign visitors were down 12 percent year-on-year in March, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce. That drop marked one of the steepest declines on record outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Western European visitors experienced a 17 percent drop-off, spearheaded by fewer British and German visitors – 14 and 28 percent, respectively.
Americans’ appetite for foreign travel also appears to have been impacted.
U.S. citizens appear more concerned about being detained or harassed by U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents when they re-enter the U.S.
The Trump administration has repeatedly warned that agents have searched the electronic devices of U.S. citizens at the border.
“All travelers crossing the United States border are subject to CBP inspection,” the CBP’s website reads. “On rare occasions, CBP officers may search a traveler’s mobile phone, computer, camera, or other electronic devices during the inspection process.”
Last week, Los Angeles political consultant Rick Taylor was pulled aside by border agents, separated from his family and placed in a holding room with several Latino travelers for nearly an hour, according to the LA Times.
