Melissa Likely Season’s Next Major Hurricane
Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane by early next week, but its slow crawl over the Caribbean Sea makes it a rainfall flood danger for parts of Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba.
(MORE MAPS: Melissa Map Tracker)
Where It Is Now
Melissa’s center is located in the central Caribbean Sea several hundred miles south of Haiti and Jamaica.
And it is still crawling forward at less than 5 mph.
Some outer bands of showers and thundershowers are streaming northward across parts of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico with soaking rainfall and gusty winds.
Current Satellite Image
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the dark red and pink colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical system.
)
Alerts
The map below shows the latest watches and warnings in effect for Melissa.
A hurricane watch means hurricane-force winds are possible, and tropical-storm-force winds could move in within 48 hours.
A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Watches And Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.
)
Possible Forecast Track Scenarios
There still appear to be two potential outcomes for Melissa’s, at least somewhat dependent on its intensity forecast:
- Sluggish movement into next week, then a delayed northeastward curl: The first scenario is that Melissa moves sluggishly and eventually wanders farther west over the western Caribbean Sea through early next week, before it finally accelerates northeastward by the middle of next week toward Jamaica or the Cayman Islands, then Cuba and the Bahamas. The chance of this scenario is increasing.
- Quicker northward curve: If Melissa strengthens sooner, it could be drawn northward sooner over Haiti before abruptly moving northeastward out into the central Atlantic Ocean beginning early next week. This chance of this scenario is trending lower.
This may be a long, drawn-out affair lasting well into next week.
For now, the threat to the mainland U.S. from Melissa — primarily to South Florida — appears to be very low, but not zero.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.
)
How Strong?
For the next few days, wind shear may keep Melissa from intensifying quickly. This difference in wind speed and/or direction with height can blow thunderstorms away from the center or tilt the circulation.
Wind Shear
(Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.)
But by this weekend, that wind shear is expected to relax.
And Melissa will be over the most abundant supply of warm, deep water anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, serving as fuel for strengthening.
Therefore, we expect Melissa to rapidly intensify into a major — Category 3 or stronger — hurricane either by this weekend or early next week as its center is near Jamaica.
(MORE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think)
Ocean Heat Content
(This map shows areas of not only warm water, but warm, deep water that is one ingredient to fuel developing and active tropical cyclones.
)
Flood Danger, Regardless
Regardless of Melissa’s wind intensity, its slow crawl means some parts of the Caribbean will pick up additional heavy rainfall for several days into next week.
Parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could pick up over 10 inches of additional rainfall through next week. Some bands or clusters of locally heavy rain area also possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas.
That heavy rainfall is likely to trigger life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in hilly and mountainous terrain.
(MORE: Why Slow-Moving Storms Are The Worst)
Additional Rain Forecast
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours.
)
Number 13
Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning, the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
That’s roughly on par with the average date of the 13th storm from 1991 through 2020 (Oct. 25), according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s also one storm shy of the average number of storms for an entire season, 14.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season names list. Those storm names used up already have check marks next to them.
Melissa is also the first storm of the season to track into the Caribbean Sea. As you can see in the season-to-date tracks map below, most other storms and hurricanes have curled north of the Caribbean Sea this season.
That’s due either to steering winds in the Atlantic, or hostile conditions for development in the Caribbean Sea prior to Melissa.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracks To Date
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates on Melissa, and elsewhere in the tropics.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
