Guaranteed goals or unsustainable? Mbeumo and xGpublished at 10:02 British Summer Time
Tom McCoy
BBC Sport journalist
Image source, Getty ImagesBryan Mbeumo is a man in demand after 20 Premier League goals in 2024-25 – the first time he has scored 10 times or more in a top-flight season.
That was despite an expected goals total for the campaign of 12.3, meaning he outperformed his xG by 7.7.
Historically, that level of clinical finishing has rarely proved repeatable.
In the past five Premier League seasons, just 14 players have overperformed their xG by at least five goals. The only player to do so more than once is Tottenham’s Son Heung-min, in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
That doesn’t make Mbeumo, who consistently ranks highly for chances created, any less of an asset to a new team. But it could mean clubs chasing him pay a bit of a premium for his signature and perhaps risks inflating expectations from supporters.
United have already signed Matheus Cunha, another player who dramatically surpassed his xG last term.
The Brazilian’s 15 goals for Wolves came from an xG of 8.6, with only Mbeumo and Chris Wood of Nottingham Forest (6.6) recording bigger differences in 2024-25.
