The White House has a China problem, and the Asia-Pacific should be the least of its worries – for now. Russian President Vladimir Putin may have a China problem as well. His current predicament in Ukraine has clouded his ability to read Chinese President Xi Jinping’s intent.
Necessity has a way of doing that.
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Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief responsible for drafting the National Defense Strategy (NDS), may be right about the China threat – only he has the wrong continent and priority of effort.
The war in Ukraine has been a proxy war for China against the United States – and Russia has been their tool. China and Russia have been in cahoots with one another since the outset of the war when, according to a Western intelligence report, “Chinese officials in early February requested that senior Russian officials wait until after the Beijing Olympics had finished before beginning an invasion into Ukraine.”
Taiwan – and the reunification of China – may be the grand prize. But conditions must be set before they can claim it. Patience is their virtue. The Trump and Biden administrations have been very accommodating, so too has Putin.
For now, Beijing’s objective appears to be the fragmentation of the NATO alliance by undermining their confidence in US support, to weaken and militarily diminish the US and Russia by means of another “forever war,” and to increase uncertainty amongst US allies regarding American commitment to Taiwan and other bilateral security agreements throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
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Russia Says Ukraine Peace Talks Frozen as NATO Bolsters Defences
Russia says Ukraine peace talks are on hold as NATO boosts defenses after drone incursions.
In their latest attempt to undermine the NATO alliance, Russian drones entered Polish airspace again Wednesday evening, only this time NATO aircraft responded and shot them down. The action invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, and the incident will be brought before the North Atlantic Council for discussion; however, the bureaucratic speed of NATO will now be on full display.
Do not expect Hungary or Slovakia, and therefore by default NATO, to support any further actions against Russia. Poland experienced this before when the United Kingdom and France, while declaring war on Nazi Germany, failed to come to Poland’s defense in September 1939 – aka the Phoney War.
The Pentagon’s proposal to prioritize the protection of the homeland and Western Hemisphere in the draft version of the NDS presented to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth last week serves to reinforce their narrative as well.
Putin is gambling that Ukraine’s army will break before his economy does, and has taken measures to ensure it stays afloat.
It has become increasingly apparent to President Donald Trump that Putin is not interested in any ceasefire or Western version of peace in Ukraine. By peace, Putin adamantly means capitulation – unconditional surrender.
He made that clear in China last week, stating he would “end the war by force” if Ukraine doesn’t agree to his demands. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov added: “Peace will only be possible when Ukraine joins Russia – as a region of district status.”
He has chosen to stay the course – to sustain “7,000 casualties a week” in exchange for all of Ukraine. His cost calculus is not measured in the lives of his soldiers; rather, his ability to keep his economy afloat. Putin is gambling that Ukraine’s army will break before his economy does, and has taken measures to ensure it stays afloat.
During 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 in Tianjin, China last week, he sought and secured financial support to weather the storm of EU sanctions and the potential for US sanctions. China, North Korea, Iran, India, Hungary and Slovakia – all have an interest in a Russian victory. Some more than others.
But what likely irked Trump the most was the China end-around Xi pulled on him at the SCO.
As we stated in the Kyiv Post last Thursday: “Trump observed his three amigos – Putin, Xi and Kim Jong Un – pictured together at a military parade in Beijing commemorating the end of the Second World War.”
Trump’s response was immediate, lashing out on social media: “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America.”
In a separate post on Truth Social he added: “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”
But the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline deal with China was the straw that broke the camel’s back. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced that the Russian company and the China National Petroleum Corporation had signed a “legally binding” memorandum to build the pipeline to China.
When complete, the pipeline will add “50 billion cubic meters of export capacity per year to Russia’s pipeline network, supplementing the 38 billion cubic meters currently shipped through the original Power of Siberia line from eastern Siberia,” insulating China from the US while injecting much needed revenue into the Kremlin coffers, which according to energy analyst Sergei Vakulenko, amounted to between $2.5 billion to $4.3 billion per year.
The President had been using financial deals as incentives to get Putin to the negotiation table and bring the war in Ukraine to an end.
In mid-August, while the President was meeting with Putin in Alaska, Reuters reported that “US and Russian government officials were discussing several energy deals on the sidelines of [the] negotiations… that sought to achieve peace in Ukraine. [The] deals were put forward as incentives to encourage the Kremlin to agree to peace in Ukraine and for Washington to ease sanctions on Russia.”
In May the President tweeted that, “Russia wants to do large-scale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately.”
And in February after the G7 Summit, the President tweeted that he was in “serious discussions with… Putin… concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the US and Russia. Talks are proceeding very well!”
What began as a partnership between Putin and Xi has devolved into a dependency. Xi has become the puppet master.
Trump blames Zelensky for continuing to resist and Europe for supporting them, and now Xi, for enabling Russia to continue their war in Ukraine. But what the US president needs to acknowledge is that he never had his foot in the door in the first place.
What began as a partnership between Putin and Xi has devolved into a dependency. Xi has become the puppet master.
Another phone call with Putin and another meeting with European leaders in Washington will not resolve the issue. It is more of the same. Einstein had a word for that – insanity. It just kicks the can down the road for another predetermined length of time while Putin continues his aerial bombardments of Ukraine. On Sept. 7 alone, Russia launched 13 ballistic missiles, 810 drones, and decoys – striking Ukraine’s government headquarters and residential neighborhoods in Kyiv.
Ukraine does not need to hear British Prime Minister Keir Starmer say: “These cowardly strikes show that Putin believes he can act with impunity. He is not serious about peace. Now, more than ever, we must stand firm in our support for Ukraine and its sovereignty.”
Nor Trump as he told reporters: “I am not happy about the whole situation. I am not happy with them. I’m not happy with anything having to do with that war.”
“Them” is not the problem – Putin is. Leaning in on Zelensky and Europe is not the solution – getting Putin to stop attacking is.
Isolationism is not the solution either. Senior US military officers, career diplomats, and intelligence professionals need to step up and provide President Trump the sound advice on Russia and China he needs to hear – not what his political appointees are feeding him.
It is time to believe Putin and Kadyrov. Appeasement has not worked; nothing President Trump has said or done has preempted any further Russian assaults on Ukraine.
It is time for decisive action. Remove Russia from the equation and you remove China’s leverage.
Copyright 2025. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
