The market reactions to latest US-China framework

The US and China ended two days of talks in London with the announcement of a new effort to try and move past recent flare-ups and get back to negotiations that had been planned after a gathering last month in Geneva.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick described the agreement to reporters as “a framework to implement the Geneva consensus” — suggesting this gathering was about getting the “negativity out.” The Chinese negotiator offered similar takeaways to Chinese state media.

Both sides hinted that this week’s talks will lead to a Chinese speed-up of shipments of rare earth metals critical to US and world supply chains in exchange for Washington easing some of its own export controls on things like semiconductors.

But neither side is offering specifics. The clear focus for the moment is defusing these issues with an eye toward opening up talks on broader topics — like tariffs — later.

The deals will now be presented to US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for their reaction.

Trump offered his own reaction Wednesday morning with a social media post asserting that a deal is “done” and will include the supplying of rare earth minerals by China “up front” as well as give Chinese students access to US universities.

Trump also said, “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS.”

He arrived at that figure, according to a White House aide, by adding the existing blanket 20% tariffs on illegal drugs, 10% baseline tariffs, and other preexisting duties that average out to 25% but only apply to certain goods.

Outside analysts, such as the budget lab at Yale, have calculated that the effective tariff rate on China across all goods is more like 33%.

A variety of market observers quickly weighed in hours after Tuesday evening’s unveiling to suggest that the deal may not have a lot of meat on the bones, but at least relations are no longer moving in the wrong direction.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng pose for a photo with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, and China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang, in London, Britain June 9, 2025. United States Treasury/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese vice premier He Lifeng, center, pose for a photo around trade talks with, from left US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, and China’s International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang in London on June 9. (United States Treasury/Handout via REUTERS) · Reuters / Reuters

The talks perhaps underscored how unlikely a comprehensive trade deal is anytime soon, noted AGF Investments’ Greg Valliere, “but at least relations may not worsen as talks continue throughout the summer.”

Both sides promised additional talks in the weeks or months ahead, but none have yet been scheduled.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet

Veronique de Rugy, a professor at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, suggested the talks continued to show China’s leverage: “China is hurting, yes, but they still hold the upper hand on critical resources, and they know how to use them.”

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