The Tesla Model Y was dethroned as the world’s best selling car last year, according to data from JATO dynamics. It was beaten by the Toyota RAV4, by a margin of just 0.16%.
Since Q1 2023, the Tesla Model Y had held the crown as the best-selling car in the world. It was the first EV to do so, quite an accomplishment for a vehicle company that didn’t exist two decades prior.
The win had actually been a fulfillment of a prediction by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who said when the Model Y was introduced that he thought it had the potential to take the crown. Unlike many of Musk’s other predictions, this one came true.
The Model Y retained the crown of best-selling car for the full year of 2023, and continued to sell well starting in 2024. It looked like it might retain the crown for the full year of sales.
But then, things started to change… Musk decided to get involved in politics and became the largest source of bribes to anti-EV forces in the world. Musk gave hundreds of millions of dollars to try to destroy the American EV market, something that the party he donated to is trying to follow through with today in Congress.
Unsurprisingly, getting himself involved in anti-EV politics was not helpful for sales of the EV that the EV company he is the titular CEO of sells.
As the year drew on, consumers were turned off of Tesla, not only in the US but in other countries around the world which disliked Musk’s attempts to meddle in their own domestic politics (by, for example, showing support for German neo-Nazis, or his many other white supremacist statements).
This resulted in sales troubles for Tesla, which started in the middle of last year, when Tesla saw its first consecutive down quarters in deliveries that it had ever seen since the company got off the ground.
Now, given the new data compiled by Felipe Munoz of JATO dynamics, we know that the brand damage done by Musk was enough to knock Model Y off the top step – though by an exceedingly small margin.
The Toyota RAV4 managed to beat the Tesla Model Y by less than 3,000 units globally, which is around one tenth of one percent of the total sales of the two models. So, these models were essentially tied. The RAV4 gained sales and the Model Y lost sales over the full year.
Notably, Tesla also had another model, the Model 3, in the top-ten cars in the world. It retained its 9th-place spot, and sales increased by 10% in 2024. The BYD Qin rounded out the top 10, leaving 3 plug-in models among the 10 best-selling cars in the world.
The competition came at a weird time, for both the RAV4 and Model Y. The RAV4 was nearing the end of its current generation, needing a refresh which was announced in May for the 2026 model year. Among other things, that refresh kills off the ICE-only version of the RAV4, leaving only hybrid and plug-in hybrid models (though, as usual, Toyota is being deceptive in its marketing about what that means).
However, despite that upcoming refresh, the RAV4 still saw its best sales in its current generation, which is a rare feat.
The Model Y also had an upcoming refresh, which was perhaps more anticipated, and also expected/announced sooner. The refresh was officially announced on January 9, just a few days after the full year of sales ended, but we had seen plenty of leaks and information prior (including the refresh of the Model 3).
This upcoming refresh, and all the information about it, likely did help to depress sales from individuals who wanted to wait until the refresh came through.
So both models were late in their life, which means their places as #1 and #2 on the global sales charts were all the more impressive – but also, given the balance of how “expected” each refresh was, and how big of a refresh might have been expected, we think perhaps the Model Y’s sales were affected more by this than the RAV4’s, adding a potential asterisk to the change in title due to changeovers… but it’s still a bit of a stretch.
So, if 2025 were a normal year, we might expect another close fight, with both vehicles working through new order lists of their refreshed models.
But, if you haven’t been paying attention to the news (how? please tell me, I’d like to join you), 2025 is not turning out to be a normal year.
Musk has continued his politicking, which included starting the year off by making two unambiguous Nazi salutes in front of a world audience. He has since gone on to agree with a defense of Hitler’s actions in the Holocaust. His actions have driven protests against the company, embarrassed owners and pushed many customers away – and despite a very public breakup with the anti-EV forces he had previously allied himself with, the protesters he inspired aren’t planning on stopping.
As a result, Tesla sales have continued to crater this year. They’re dropping in almost every territory, and Tesla just confirmed its poor Q2 sales numbers, down significantly from the previous year. Tesla doesn’t break out individual model sales, but given the Model Y is its best-seller, we’re sure they’re down quite a bit.
So, while a fight might have still been possible in 2025, it seems unlikely at this point that Tesla can come back from the brand damage done to it by its titular CEO. Congratulations Model Y on your almost two years at the top, and for breaking this glass ceiling for EVs everywhere – and BYD/Xiaomi/Xpeng, we’ll be waiting to see you up there soon enough.
Another effect of Musk’s politicking is that republicans just voted to kill the rooftop solar credit. That means you could have only until the end of this year to install rooftop solar on your home, before republicans raise the cost of doing so by an average of ~$10,000. So if you want to go solar, get started now, because these things take time and the system needs to be active before you file for the credit.
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