Summer is over.

That’s true for stocks as much as it is Americans, with the market officially exiting its summer months on Friday — a historically placid time for investors, given factors like lower trading volumes, subdued volatility, and Wall Street staffers dipping out for vacation.

It also wraps up a positive August for stocks. Despite concerns lingering over tariffs and the strength of the US economy, the S&P 500 rose 2% during the month, beating its historical norm.

Wall Street is now starting to rev back up, with a heavy load of economic data coming ahead, despite the shortened trading week.

Here’s what should be on investors’ radar:

Job market in focus

The job market is also coming into clearer focus, particularly as investors expect a cluster of important data points this week. Here are the releases the market is expecting:

• ADP private employment (Thursday)
• Initial jobless claims (Thursday)
• August jobs report (Friday)

The labor market is expected to be a key focus for stock investors here on, given recent weakness and the potential for a softer job market to impact the pace of Fed rate cuts heading into 2026.

“The August jobs release will offer a reality check of sorts following July’s surprisingly soft reading and significant downward revisions to results for May and June,” economist Ed Yardeni said in a client note.

He’s referring to job gains coming in way below expectations in July, while payrolls for May and June were heavily revised downward, indicating the labor market hasn’t been as strong as markets initially thought.

Peter Berezin, the chief market strategist at BCA Research, told Business Insider he expected further downward job revisions coming in the data this week. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that the economy outright lost jobs over May and June, he added.

“If the August jobs report shows hiring is still weak and slack in the job market is widening, it will probably clinch the case for a rate cut at the September decision,” Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in a note.

Andrew Husby, a senior US economist at BNP Paribas, said he expected the economy to post 90,000 jobs for the month of August, while the unemployment rate remained steady at around 4.2%.

“Although the economy remains resilient, in our view, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his Jackson Hole speech, unexpectedly gave greater credence to employment risks than to inflation risks, prompting us to change our Fed call. We anticipate rate cuts in September and December,” he said in a note to clients last week.

Tariff pain

Markets are also anticipating updated US trade deficit data for the month of July to roll out on Thursday. That’ll give investors a bigger picture as to how tariffs have already been impacting trade, and how big the impact could be on the US economy.

Complicating matters was a ruling on Friday that declared Trump’s sweeping tariff plan to be illegal, saying that the president overstepped his power. Still, the tariffs remain in place for now.

If the tariffs do go through, many expecting them to increase inflation as businesses pass along increased duty costs to consumers.

“One could argue that this is an unusual year, with the tariffs and Fed cuts about to begin. With stocks at all-time highs and 4 months without a real correction, being cautious would seem prudent,” Louis Navellier, the founder of Navellier & Associates, wrote in a note.

September is a historically weak month

September has historically been the weakest month for the stock market. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has posted an average loss of 0.7% during the month of September.

When stocks did end the month down, the S&P 500 lost an average 3.8%, according to an analysis from LPL Financial.

“September is the worst month for stocks,” Adam Turnquist, the chief technical strategist at LPL, wrote in a note, adding that financial markets tended to “shift gears” during the month.

The VIX, a measure of market volatility also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, also tends to peak in September, Turnquist said. That indicates September is a historically turbulent time for the market, as much as it tends to be a losing month.

According to Bespoke’s Seasonality tool, the S&P 500’s median performance in the next week has been a 0.45% drop, according to data it analyzed over the last 10 years.

But, from a seasonal perspective, it might not all be bad news for the market, given positive overall momentum in recent weeks, Mark Hackett, the chief market strategist at Nationwide, wrote in a note. He pointed to the S&P 500’s recent record-high and the index gaining in the last six out of seven weeks.

“Seasonal data represents the typical climate for stocks but not the weather. And currently, the weather for the S&P 500 is filled with blue skies and record highs,” LPL’s Turnquist said. “When accounting for momentum and trend, which we believe is much-needed context, September doesn’t look so bad.”

“I still expect seasonal weakness to kick in and would look to be a buyer on dips,” Gina Bolvin, the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, wrote in a note.