Stock Market Outlook: Lower Rate, Tax Cuts Fuel Bubble Risk, BofA Says


Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange



Spencer Platt/Getty Images

  • BofA analysts say risks of a stock market bubble in the second half are building.
  • The bank’s Michael Hartnett said expectations for rate cuts and lower taxes are fueling inflows to stocks.
  • His team says a top trade is owning US growth stocks and international value stocks.

A Bank of America analyst sees the risk of a speculative stock market bubble increasing as expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates continue to rise.

In a note on Friday, BofA’s Michael Hartnett highlighted a shift that he sees approaching, one that could lead to complications for investors—and he also shared his view on a trade to hedge such a scenario.

Geopolitical tensions and tariff updates from President Donald Trump have been headwinds for markets. But with the Israel-Iran ceasefire continuing to hold, the focus has shifted to the possibility of interest rate cuts in July.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell opted to leave rates steady at this month’s meeting, but several top officials since then have come out in support for a cut as soon as next month.

As Hartnett’s team sees it, investors have begun to adjust for a higher likelihood that Powell will pivot in his stance and cut interest rates. On top of that, Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is likely to result in lower taxes for corporations and some households.

“H2 bubble risk high as Trump/Powell pivot from tariffs to tax cuts/rate cuts to incite US$ devaluation/US stock bubble,” Hartnett wrote.

Hartnett and his team go on to say that the best way for investors to play the market against the backdrop of a potential bubble is by owning US growth stocks and international value stocks, presenting it as a means of finding a balance between risk and reward.

They highlight this strategy as an effective way to guard against the potential impact of the predicted second-half bubble, as it offers exposure to growth in both US and international markets.

Other experts have shared similar strategies for handling this year’s high levels of market and economic uncertainty. Investor Bill Gross said this week he was eyeing a small bull market for stocks and a small bear market for bonds, highlighting the strategy of buying one and selling the other.



Source link

Visited 1 times, 1 visit(s) today

Related Article

EUR/USD Pair Hits Yearly High

EUR/USD Pair Hits Yearly High

Yesterday, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose above the 1.1700 level for the first time this year. The last time one euro was worth more than 1.70 US dollars was in autumn 2019. The main driver behind the euro’s rise is the weakening dollar, largely due to decisions made by the Trump administration. This week alone,

US Stock Futures Record Could Drive Bitcoin To All-Time High

US Stock Futures Record Could Drive Bitcoin To All-Time High

US stock futures are at record highs as the country’s largest markets are nearing their peaks, which could help propel Bitcoin to reach another all-time high, according to analysts.  S&P 500 futures entered new all-time high territory on Thursday with the index tapping 6,145 points, surpassing February’s peak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures also hit

BTC/USD Today 27/06: Consolidates Below $112K (graph)

BTC/USD Today 27/06: Consolidates Below $112K (Video)

Bitcoin has been pretty quiet during the session here on Thursday as we try to sort out where to go next as market participants are pretty bullish over the last several days, but now we are trying to work off some of that froth. We have been consolidating for a while and therefore it’s I

USD/JPY Declines — Traders Eye Support for Potential Rebound

USD/JPY Declines — Traders Eye Support for Potential Rebound

Key Highlights USD/JPY extended losses and traded below the 145.00 support zone. A major bullish trend line is forming with support at 143.50 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD extended gains and broke the 1.1700 resistance. GBP/USD rallied above the 1.3620 and 1.3650 levels. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar failed to stay above 146.20 and

NatWest branch1

NatWest and Marex Partner on New Cross Margining Solution LeapRate

NatWest and Marex have announced a new partnership to deliver a cross margining solution.  The partnership aims to enhance margin efficiency for clients active in foreign exchange markets. According to a press release, the initiative will allow clients who access FX Futures through Marex and use NatWest’s FX prime brokerage services to benefit from margin

Stock Futures Up as SPX Eyes New High

Stock Futures Up as SPX Eyes New High

U.S. stock futures trended higher ahead of Friday’s session as investors watched major indexes near record highs and awaited key inflation data. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the S&P 500 (SPX) were up 0.11%, 0.15%, and 0.12%, respectively, at 1:09 a.m. EST, June 27. Confident Investing Starts Here: In Thursday’s trading, the

ET logo

Rupee rises 23 paise to 85.49 against US dollar in early trade

The rupee rose 23 paise to 85.49 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, aided by strong FII inflows and positive sentiments in the domestic equity markets. However, a rise in global crude oil prices and a slightly stronger greenback capped further gains in the local unit, forex traders said. Foreign institutional investors

EUR/USD Analysis Today 26/06: Selling Recommended (Chart)

EUR/USD Analysis Today 26/06: Selling Recommended (Chart)

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today Overall Trend: Strongly Bullish. Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1590 – 1.1500 – 1.1420. Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1680 – 1.1730 – 1.1800. EUR/USD Trading Signals: Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1690 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1800. Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1490

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x