SoftBank and Trump may not be enough to save Intel

Intel (INTC) rose roughly 7% on Tuesday, a day after SoftBank Group announced it would take a $2 billion stake in the struggling chipmaker.

News of SoftBank’s investment follows a Bloomberg report last week that said the Trump administration is considering taking up to a 10% position in the company.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in a CNBC interview Tuesday that the investment would involve the US government converting Intel’s grants from the Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act — worth $10.9 billion — into an equity stake aimed at stabilizing the company’s US manufacturing business. Bessent did not confirm the size of the stake the government would take.

Intel has fallen behind in an industry it once dominated. Its manufacturing division is bleeding cash, just as its legacy computer chip segment forfeits market share to rivals Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Qualcomm (QCOM) in the PC space. Intel is also woefully behind AMD and Nvidia (NVDA) in the AI race.

The company’s market capitalization of $111 billion is less than half of its value in 2021. And CEO Lip-Bu Tan has been forced to lay off 15% of the company’s workforce and shelve plans to build plants in Europe.

But the troubled chipmaker is the only large-scale US-based leading-edge chip manufacturer, giving it geopolitical significance as the nation looks to reshore semiconductor production.

Intel’s problems, however, may be too big for either SoftBank or the Trump administration to solve on their own.

Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore said news of the US potentially taking a stake in Intel, combined with the SoftBank investment, shows that “[Tan] is taking bold actions to solidify Intel’s financial and strategic positioning during its ongoing difficult transformation process.” Tan became CEO in March after Intel’s board ousted former CEO Pat Gelsinger late last year.

But others on Wall Street expressed skepticism that those investments would be enough to save Intel from its decline, which resulted from years of missteps.

Loop Capital analyst Gary Mobley wrote in a recent note to clients that the support from SoftBank and, potentially, the US government may be “akin to a lifeline with no secure anchor at the other end,” because while Intel may be “finding new buyers of its primary equity capital,” that may not guarantee it can find customers for its manufacturing business.

Gelsinger established Intel’s third-party chip manufacturing business, otherwise known as its Foundry, in 2021 as a means of competing with rival TSMC, which produces chips for companies including Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), AMD, and others.



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