Russian and Ukrainian delegates have begun their third set of direct talks in Istanbul, days after US President Donald Trump gave Moscow a 50-day deadline to make peace or face “very severe tariffs.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not publicly acknowledged Trump’s ultimatum, and Moscow has continued to pummel Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles while its ground troops grind forward in the east.
The two previous rounds of talks in Istanbul, in May and June, helped facilitate the exchange of thousands of prisoners of war and the remains of dead soldiers, but made little progress toward a potential ceasefire agreement.
Before Wednesday’s latest round of talks, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov sought to downplay expectations, stressing that the two sides’ negotiating positions remain “diametrically opposed.”
“No one expects an easy path. It will be a very difficult discussion,” Peskov said Wednesday. A day earlier, he told reporters not to expect “any miraculous breakthroughs.”
Peskov confirmed that Moscow’s delegation is unchanged from the previous rounds of talks and will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister and now a senior Putin aide.
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s former defense minister, is leading Kyiv’s delegation after heading the previous two.
Last month, Russian casualties hit a grim milestone, with the UK’s Ministry of Defence estimating that Putin’s war has likely cost Russia more than 1 million casualties since the start of its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
That number tracked with an assessment the same month from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, DC, which put the number of casualties at 950,000 and predicted that “Russia will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025.”
Despite those losses, the Russian president has shown little sign of compromising on his maximalist war aim of dismantling Ukraine’s sovereignty. In a long essay published months before the full-scale invasion, Putin falsely argued that Russia and Ukraine are one country; his comments suggesting to many that the war has been waged to make that a reality.
In addition to Trump’s fresh threat of new sanctions on Russia and other countries that purchase Russian oil if peace isn’t reached in 50 days, the US also secured a deal to funnel new weapons to Kyiv through European allies. The moves were in stark contrast with previous approaches the US leader has taken with the conflict.
Trump’s reversal came after the European Union unveiled a new package of sanctions proposing to lower the price cap on Russian oil exports and introducing a full transaction ban on Russian banks and financial institutions in third countries that help Russia dodge existing sanctions.
It is unclear whether Trump’s latest decisions will sway Moscow’s approach, but his about-face could provide a much-needed boost to Ukraine’s military coffers, and signals his growing frustration with Putin.
“My conversations with him are very pleasant, and then the missiles go off at night,” Trump explained last week.
Before the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his call for a direct meeting with Putin, saying only a meeting of the two leaders can end the war.
