Lee Anderson is currently the only Reform UK MP in Nottinghamshire

A major poll has predicted that Reform UK would dominate in terms of Nottinghamshire MPs if a general election were held tomorrow. YouGov’s seat-by-seat analysis, based on a survey of 13,000 individuals, indicates that Nigel Farage’s Reform would secure 311 seats in the Commons.

This falls just shy of a majority, but leaves no room for any other party to take the reins of the country. Reform currently boasts only five MPs, so the poll forecasts a huge gain of 306 seats for the party.

Nottinghamshire has 11 constituencies and Reform currently only has one of them in the shape of Lee Anderson’s Ashfield. The poll predicts that a new election would see Reform going from one Nottinghamshire MP to seven.

The Conservatives would lose their only MP, Newark’s Robert Jenrick, and Labour would lose five of their current MPs. Councillor Sam Smith, who is the Conservative leader of the opposition at Nottinghamshire County Council, reacted to the poll by attacking Reform’s record so far in running that authority.

Councillor Smith said: “Reform in Nottinghamshire are responsible for a £1.2bn budget and key county council services such as road repairs, schools and social care yet they answer most questions put to them with ‘we’re yet to be briefed yet, we will come back to you outside this meeting or we have no idea, genuinely’.

“They’ve banned the local press and have made Nottinghamshire famous in the US Senate for being anti-free speech. Nottinghamshire residents are already suffering under Reform control and do not want to risk electing them as a government.

“Residents know that they can trust Conservatives to get things done and deliver on their priorities.” Reform’s ban on Nottinghamshire Live has now been lifted after a legal challenge proved successful.

Councillor Fraser McFarland, the Reform UK group leader on Bassetlaw District Council who was previously a Conservative Party member, said: “There’s a long way to go and we do see the polls fluctuate over time, but I think the trend is positive and I don’t see the Conservative Party recovering under their current leader. I don’t see how Labour’s position can recover either given the state of the economy and what they’re going to have to do in the budget later this year, so we’re very confident in Bassetlaw.”

Alan Rhodes, who led Nottinghamshire County Council for Labour between 2013 and 2017 and remains a cabinet member on Bassetlaw District Council, said: “We all get excited about polls when they come out in our favour.

“My own view is that we’re three years away from a general election at least and I think it’s a bit premature to start predicting what might happen in three years. A lot could happen between now and then and of course we might have by-elections and we’ll have local elections before then.

“The budget is always usually a mixture of good news and not so good news. I think the two-child benefit cap being lifted is pretty much a given at this point, but everything else is in the hands of Rachel Reeves.

“We can’t dismiss people’s concerns and the cost of living crisis is a huge issue for people. It’s still very expensive to go to the supermarket and to fill up the car and of course we’ve got winter coming, so I don’t think we should be relaxed about anything, but I think it’s a bit premature for predicting what might happen in three years.”

The extensive poll suggests Labour would only manage to win 144 out of 650 seats, a significant drop from the 411 they secured last year. The Lib Dems would hold 78 seats while the Tories would be virtually obliterated.

The poll indicates that Kemi Badenoch’s party would only secure 45 seats. Meanwhile, the SNP would gain 37 and the Greens would obtain seven.

This would mark Labour’s poorest performance in the Commons since 1931. Even the 2019 general election debacle under Jeremy Corbyn saw Labour secure 202 seats.

High-profile Labour figures predicted to lose their seats include Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner. The Conservatives are projected to lose 60% of their frontbench, with Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Sir Mel Stride among those expected to be ousted, according to the poll.

However, pollsters note that Reform has yet to be tested nationally in government or opposition. With the party now holding seats for the first time, they will have a record to defend by the time of the next election. Find out below what the latest polling data predicts for your constituency.