Welcome to week six of The Athletic’s Premier League predictions challenge, where, as in real life, it feels ominously like the algorithm is taking over.
Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time equaliser for Arsenal against Manchester City last Sunday yielded a whopping four points for the algorithm, taking it to the top of the table for the first time.
On an afternoon that prompted discussion about the merits or otherwise of Pep Guardiola’s weirdly negative, safety-first gameplan, the algorithm’s grim, joyless philosophy of predicting 1-1 draws and 2-1 wins proved more successful.
Mind you, if you can’t beat them, why not join them? I had my best weekend so far, predicting three correct scorelines: a 2-1 win for Liverpool over Everton and 1-1 draws between Burnley and Nottingham Forest on Saturday and Sunderland and Aston Villa on Sunday. That’s called taking on the algorithm at its own game.
Each week, four of us — a guest subscriber, the algorithm, six-year-old Wilfred and I — are predicting the Premier League results.
We’re awarding three points for a correct scoreline and one point for a correct result. There’s also a bonus point for any correct “unique” prediction, so whereas Wilfred got an extra point for getting West Ham 1-2 Crystal Palace spot-on, there were no bonus points for tipping Liverpool to beat Everton by the same scoreline.
Wilfred had a great weekend with three correct scorelines. He is clearly taking this very seriously because, according to his proud father, he resembled that Roy Hodgson GIF when he was told the algorithm and I had also got three spot-on.
Upon being presented with the latest league table, his proud father complained that Wilf was “getting done by the bonus point system — corruption”.
I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been cursing whichever idiot it was that came up with it. (Editor’s note: it was you.)
It was a tough week for our guest subscriber, Arsenal fan Matene from Philadelphia. He got five correct results, but didn’t quite get a correct scoreline. What looked like a wild forecast of a 4-1 win for Fulham over Brentford looked like coming true… only for what looked like a fourth Fulham goal to be disallowed after a VAR review. It’s a game of small margins.
Anyway, we move on to round six, where our guest subscriber is 35-year-old Tom, a Crystal Palace fan from London. Good luck, Tom.
Our subscriber’s match of the week
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool, Saturday, 3pm UK/10am ET
Tom says: “I’d love to write ‘Somebody’s 0 has got to go’ about a Super-Sunday Sky have built a whole ‘Undefeated’ narrative around, but alas it’s 3pm on Saturday and I’m predicting a score-draw… Palace to have the better of it, with Mateta scoring on the hour mark, before a Salah equaliser in ‘Slot-age time’ after seemingly doing nothing all game. 1-1.”
Crystal Palace 1-1 Liverpool
Oli says: I will agree with anyone who suggests Liverpool’s results have been better than their performances. But take a closer look. They put four past Bournemouth, who have conceded just once in four games since. They put three past Newcastle United, who have not conceded in their other four games. They put one past Arsenal, who have conceded just once in their four other games. Burnley and Everton are no mugs defensively either. And now Arne Slot’s side face an unbeaten Palace whose defensive record (two goals conceded in five games) is the best in the Premier League. After 10 consecutive wins over Palace between August 2017 and January 2022, Liverpool have only won two of their past seven meetings (and both by a single goal). This will be a real test for the league leaders. I’ll go for a narrow Liverpool win.
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
(Clive Mason/Getty Images)
Brentford vs Manchester United
I’ll be at the Gtech Community Stadium for this one and, at risk of oversharing in this space, I’m delighted to say I’ve also got a ticket to see Oasis at Wembley a few hours later. I’ve been fretting about the possibility of a Brentford victory that proves so seismic that I spend the rest of Saturday writing Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United obituary instead. But that United win over Chelsea last weekend has lifted the pressure somewhat. The players might feel that way too. Back-to-back wins in the Premier League for the first time under Amorim? Definitely maybe.
Brentford 0-2 Manchester United
Leeds United vs Bournemouth
A Leeds-supporting friend has spent the first six weeks of the new season oscillating between “I hate the Premier League; it’s better in the Championship” and “This is the best thing ever”. Last weekend’s 3-1 win at Wolves took him firmly back into the latter camp. But there will be more frustrating days along the way. This, against an impressive Bournemouth team who have conceded just once in their past four Premier League games, might be one of those.
Leeds 1-1 Bournemouth
Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion
If you’re a Brighton fan, do you resent Chelsea for continually raiding you in the transfer market? Do you take pride in seeing your players move on to — in theory — bigger and better things at Stamford Bridge? Or do you find it funny? It’s probably a combination of all three, but closer to amusement. Even though Moises Caicedo has lived up to his billing as one of the best defensive midfielders around, Marc Cucurella has rediscovered his rhythm and Joao Pedro has shown flashes of his obvious talent, those three sales alone earned Brighton a minimum of £220million. That’s before you look at £25m for Robert Sanchez (suspended on Saturday after his wild red card at Manchester United), the mystifying loan signing of Facundo Buonanotte (ineligible to face his parent club) and £20m-plus compensation for Graham Potter and his staff. (Hang on, did Potter really manage Chelsea?). It’s real “Ah, how is my favourite customer today?” stuff. There are people who admire Chelsea’s hyperactive approach to player trading. I’m not among them.
Chelsea 1-1 Brighton
Manchester City vs Burnley
There’s a temptation to go big here. It could be one of those days when City rack up four, five, six or seven. FPL players are rushing to use their triple-captain chip on Erling Haaland. But… I’m really not convinced Burnley are the opponents to be breezed aside like that. Scott Parker’s team will sit deep, but they are better equipped than a lot of other teams to do that. I’ll predict a comfortable City win, but not a hammering.
Manchester City 3-0 Burnley
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
In the comments section last week @cmjmarshall suggested I was “consistently underestimating Sunderland”. This was after I predicted they would draw 1-1 with Aston Villa — which they did. I’ve predicted one win, two draws and two defeats for Regis Le Bris’ team. They’ve won two, drawn two and lost one. So yes, I’ve underestimated them, but not drastically. I’ve enjoyed their performances so far — really encouraging — but I expect I’ll be predicting more defeats than wins, particularly with a tougher run of games coming up. Please don’t take it personally, Sunderland fans.
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Sunderland
Tottenham Hotspur vs Wolves
I predicted a Wolves win last weekend. I won’t be doing that again. Well, I will do at some point, but not away to a Tottenham team who are going pretty well under Thomas Frank. Fixture-wise, it looked like an inviting start to the season for Tottenham — apart from Manchester City away, which they won anyway. Wolves have an excellent recent record in this fixture (four wins and a draw in the last five meetings), but I really can’t see that continuing on Saturday night.
Tottenham 2-0 Wolves
Aston Villa vs Fulham
Since their return to the Premier League in 2019, Villa have won seven out of eight games against Fulham — the exception being the 3-0 defeat that was immediately followed by Steven Gerrard’s dismissal in October 2022. Unai Emery’s team look so low on confidence right now, but I can see them nicking a lead, sitting on it anxiously and just about holding out for a first league win of the season, to be greeted with relief rather than joy.
Aston Villa 1-0 Fulham
Newcastle vs Arsenal
Newcastle have enjoyed this fixture under Eddie Howe. They’ve won three of the last four Premier League meetings at St James’ Park. They also beat Arsenal home and away in the Carabao Cup semi-final last season. All five of those games were won to nil (2-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-0). It is clearly one of those fixtures, along with Liverpool and Manchester City away, that Arsenal approach with a real sense of apprehension. I can see this being fiercely competitive, sparks flying in the middle of the park, possibly a red card. But maybe not many goals. Maybe just one… for… (hesitates) Arsenal.
Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal
Everton vs West Ham
These clubs have spent much of the last decade in the midst of an identity crisis. Those in charge have at times fallen into the lazy mindset that, if they wished to cross the Premier League’s class divide, they needed someone more glamorous than David Moyes. By far West Ham’s best period since leaving Upton Park for London Stadium in 2017 came under Moyes. But they cast him aside — twice. Everton overlooked him on several occasions before turning to him in desperation last January. Under Moyes, Everton have found themselves again, enjoying life at a new stadium which was actually designed with football in mind. West Ham, meanwhile, are back in a familiar state of drift.
Everton 2-0 West Ham
(Top photo: Getty Images; design: Demetrius Robinson)
