Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and backs Sunderland to beat Manchester United.

Bournemouth vs Fulham, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Bournemouth are a team with a clear identity, built on a relentless, coordinated high press and quick transitions – a style that causes havoc against sides who insist on trying to pass their way up the pitch.

Marco Silva’s side are nothing if not committed to possession football. They’re fourth in the league for passes made in their own half this season, yet they also rank second for high turnovers conceded which lead to shots (8) – meaning they are vulnerable when coming under pressure in their own half. That’s a dangerous mix. The Andoni Iraola press will be too hot for Fulham to handle, so back a home win at 10/11 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Leeds vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm

If you’re looking to jump on a savvy angle this weekend, make sure you’re on Tottenham’s set-piece threat. Since Thomas Frank took the reins, Spurs have added a whole new weapon to their attacking output: their massive threat from dead balls. And against this Leeds side that wobbles like jelly when defending set pieces, the numbers point to backing Spurs to cause Leeds lots of problems.

Leeds are shipping 1.7 shots per game from set pieces and have already allowed four goals conceded via that method, including last weekend’s last equaliser for Bournemouth.

Frank’s teams make clever blocks, delayed runs, decoy movements, and that causes chaos in the six-yard box. Micky van de Ven has already scored three goals this season as the Dutchman has quietly become a monster at these attacking set-pieces. He is 33/1 with Sky Bet to score first.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Eberechi Eze is not your typical Arsenal midfielder. He doesn’t deal in safe passes, low-risk link play or rehearsed rotations. He thrives on chaos. Unpredictability is in his blood and in an Arsenal side that, at times last season, could feel a little too methodical in the final third from open play, Eze’s spontaneity and eye for something different is the perfect curveball that opposition players must warn against.

With the technical security around him, he’s going to get more touches in dangerous areas, more one-on-one situations and this should lead to an increase in his shots on target numbers than what the algorithms are predicting. He’s recorded two shots on target in both of his last two starts at Newcastle and Port Vale which points towards the 6/4 on him clearing that line again with Sky Bet being a slice of value.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Manchester United vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Those backing Manchester United at 1/2 with Sky Bet are being lured in by their expected goals for data. It’s the best in the Premier League (12.21) – but that is as a misleading statistic as you’re likely to find when it comes to analysing expected goals.

The moment you start judging a team’s attacking quality solely by their xG, you’re dancing on a tactical tightrope without a safety net when it comes to making betting decisions.

United’s expected goals data is so healthy as the game-state has forced them to chase games after falling behind in matches, owing to their horrendous defensive process, which is the second worst in the Premier League according to expected goals against (9.35).

From six Premier League games, they have spent 244 minutes trailing this season – that is why those xG figures appear so healthy.

A huge chunk of that attacking data and chance creation has come when the game was out of their reach. If a team only looks dangerous when it’s losing, how dangerous is it, really? That’s a red flag.

And, despite over a decade of chaos, churn and comedy defending, it’s still a club that draws in public money like few others in the betting markets, which in turn keeps their price shorter than it should be.

Sunderland to avoid defeat on the double chance at a whopping 13/8 with Sky Bet it is then.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Chelsea vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

The markets have chalked up over 2.5 goals as a short-priced favourite at 1/2 with Sky Bet – as they often do in the Premier League – but peel back the layers and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest a low-scoring, tight encounter is the smarter play. Under 2.5 goals is around 6/4 with Sky Bet. And that’s value.

Arne Slot is a pragmatic, flexible coach who wants control, not the chaotic defending we’ve seen at times from Liverpool this season.

Slot will be aware of the noise heading into an international break about his side and this is why pure focus will be on defensive solidity, discipline and trying to control the game through possession at Stamford Bridge.

Plus, still without Cole Palmer, Chelsea look predictable and blunt.

I’m expecting a slow burner.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Aston Villa vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Burnley’s new signing, Florentino, is shaping up as a fantastic bet in the fouls committed markets, which are often overlooked as a mainstream betting medium but are laced with value especially for new signings adapting to the Premier League’s physical demands.

The Premier League is fast, physical and ruthless and Florentino’s style screams dynamic enforcer on what we’ve seen from him in his two starts so far. He’s a midfielder who plays with aggression and intensity, breaking up play and never shying away from a physical duel.

The former Benfica man committed 1.79 fouls per 90 last season, including making at least one foul in his last 19 starts. He’s already made three in two starts for Burnley and such is Villa’s foul-drawing strength in central areas, that kind of average is likely to be repeated at Villa Park. The Evens for two or more Florentino fouls looks a solid play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Everton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Crystal Palace have the team to do something really special this season in the Premier League.

But they won’t.

As to remain consistent in the Premier League will be almost impossible for them to achieve due to their European commitments.

A first taste of European football in their modern era is something fans and Oliver Glasner will take very seriously. And rightly so. Selhurst Park under the lights for a knockout game will be mega. But as romantic as that sounds, it’s also going to bring with it a Premier League hangover.

Clubs of Palace’s stature and budget often struggle to handle the double life of domestic and European football. Clubs outside the big six who get Europe have an average drop of 6.3 league positions the following season since 2015. We’ve seen it with Brighton, West Ham and Leicester over the years. It’s going to happen to Palace, so the home win at 6/4 with Sky Bet looks a wise investment on Everton following Palace’s midweek trip to Poland.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

In a Newcastle midfield built to fight, Sandro Tonali glides and creates the magic. While Bruno Guimaraes orchestrates and Joelinton bullies, Tonali is the biggest goal threat. Everything he does is filled with intent. He doesn’t just want to circulate possession. He wants to influence.

When Newcastle play at home, Eddie Howe unleashes a more expansive, front-foot midfield. Tonali becomes the spare man in transitions, the third runner in attacks and has become a goal threat. He’s scored five times in his last 17 starts at St James’ Park and has averaged a healthy 1.62 shots per 90 with hitting two or more shots in seven of his last 11 home starts.

He’s not being priced like a consistent goalscoring threat yet. And that’s where the edge is at 11/2 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Wolves vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Brighton at odds-on to beat Wolves? It just doesn’t sit right. The price doesn’t match the flakiness and inconsistencies involved with Fabian Hurzeler’s team.

Yes, Brighton are still getting results. But scratch beneath the surface with both the eye test and the underlying metrics and this is a team that isn’t functioning anywhere near the levels the market seems to think they are.

Brighton’s defensive numbers are the biggest worry. They’ve conceded an average of 1.6 expected goals per game over the last 13 Premier League – that’s the worst per 90 figure of any ever-present team during that period.

Their pressing structure, once so cohesive and suffocating, is now easier to play through – and their high-risk, high-reward build-up play is not seeing the returns it once did. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 Premier League games, too.

Wolves are of course no juggernaut, but they’re tactically disciplined, aggressive in duels and more than capable of spoiling Brighton’s rhythm in midfield.

The market is pricing up Brighton on vibes rather than reality. Back Wolves on the draw no bet at 7/4 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Wolves draw no bet (7/4 with Sky Bet)

Brentford vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

There are few greater joys in the betting game than sniffing out value in the foul markets. It’s the new frontier. Goalscorer markets are overcooked. Booking points can be a lottery. Outright markets can be settled on fine margins. But fouls? That’s where the true edge lives.

The standout match-up for fouls this weekend is Michael Kayode vs Jeremy Doku. Such is Doku’s form right now, all I can say to Kayode is: good luck, son.

Kayode is as raw as they come but very aggressive with his defending, meaning he’s foul-prone when isolated.

Douk doesn’t just beat defenders, he destroys them. He’s drawn 13 fouls in his last five starts and is completing nearly five dribbles completed per game. Kayode is 6/4 to make two or more fouls with Sky Bet. That’s a lovely angle to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3

Jones Knows’ best bet:

• 1pt on Wolves draw no bet vs Brighton (7/4 with Sky Bet)