Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows thinks Chelsea will turn the heat up on West Ham boss Graham Potter on Friday Night Football.

West Ham vs Chelsea, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

If you take the relegated teams out of the equation, West Ham rank bottom in the Premier League per 90 for expected goals, shots, shots on target, chances created from open play and passes played into the box since Graham Potter took charge.

There’s a clear problem with converting their possession and territorial advantage into quality chance creation and scoring goals – not the first time we’ve said that about a Potter team.

It can be possession for the sake of possession. The structure is there, but the soul isn’t. It’s just not very West Ham. The locals want a team that plays with grit and conviction. It could just be that Potter is a bit too spreadsheety for the Hammers. And things could become worse in the short term.

Chelsea played just fine last weekend against Palace and had the most possession (72 per cent) and made the most passes (568) of all Premier League teams but failed to score from an expected goals tally of 1.7.

They won’t leave these points out there. Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals at 6/4 with Sky Bet stands out.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Manchester City vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm

Here’s a sentence that would have made absolutely zero sense this time last year: Tottenham are becoming a serious set-piece threat.

Under Ange Postecoglou it was all vibes and vertical football, but under Thomas Frank there’s good reason to believe Spurs could evolve into a set-piece machine. Brentford ranked second for expected goals from such situations last season in the Premier League and the early signs are positive for Spurs’ ability to create havoc in the same vein.

Hello, Micky van de Ven.

He’s not just a Rolls Royce in open play and with the ball – his power, pace, and timing make him an aerial asset waiting to be unlocked from attacking corners and free-kicks. In two starts under Frank, he’s already amassed three shots and a goal against PSG.

He is 6/4 with Sky Bet to register at least one shot and while the markets remain sleeping on the true probability, he is a great bet to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Micky van de Ven +1 shots (6/4 with Sky Bet)

Brentford vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

If you wanted some evidence about how much Brentford have potentially fallen in the summer, analysing their win price in the last meeting between these two clubs in March says a lot. The Bees, with Frank, Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard and Yoane Wissa in tow, were 11/10 shots to beat Aston Villa at home.

They are priced up as 21/10 here just five months later, which indicates almost a five per cent implied probability shift.

That’s massive when assessing outright prices.

They were utterly hopeless in the first half of their 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest. First day nerves to blame? Or more a deeper underlying issue that this is a bigger rebuilding job than the club first imagined? I’m in the latter camp.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Bournemouth vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Sometimes in football betting, you just have to go back to basics.

Squad downgrade? Check. Squad imbalance? Check. Dangerous opponents who have one of the best managers in Europe? Check.

All signs point to a Bournemouth win over Wolves this weekend at 4/5 with Sky Bet – and this could be a bleak season for Vítor Pereira’s men.

At home, with the crowd behind them and Wolves trying to implement Pereira’s possession-based patterns under pressure, this game sets up nicely for Andoni Iraola’s side and the fast and frenetic Bournemouth style. The Cherries may just squeeze Wolves into errors and feast on transitions. They may have lost a lot of quality in their dressing room but the most important man remains: Iraola – as shown by their performance at Anfield.

That’s why they can be trusted to go again despite the squad overhaul.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Burnley vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

The Premier League has become a league where pace, power, directness and ability to have real physicality off the ball is so key. This switch of style has been a trend taking over the Premier League in recent seasons. In the 2018/19 season there were 389 fast breaks (OPTA term for counter-attack) recorded. That figure rose to 775 last season. It’s almost doubled.

I think Sunderland have noticed this trend and spent all summer planning to join the fast-break party because their recruitment has centred around bringing in big strong boys who either have lots of physical presence or carry great pace and power. They were so good on the break in the 3-0 win over West Ham. It was all about energy and progressive running.

Habib Diarra was the real star – this kid is powerful and full of direct running forward. Regis Le Bris gave him lots of license to support the front man and he fired in two shots, one of which was defined a big chance. He’s 6/5 with Sky Bet to hit two or more shots again in a game Sunderland will be targeting three points from.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Habib Diarra 2+ shots (6/5 with Sky Bet)

Arsenal vs Leeds, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Beware: Declan Rice is a player I’ll be rabbiting on about a lot this season.

Since moving to Arsenal, Rice has evolved into more than just a midfield shield. Under Mikel Arteta, he’s given license to step into advanced pockets, recycle possession and let fly when space opens up. This positional change makes him a fantastic betting prospect in the attacking props markets.

Rice has covered his two or more shots line in his last six starts and boats an overall shots figure of 2.15 when playing in the No 8 role in 2025.

That figure should be capable of being hit against against a newly-promoted team, where Arsenal will dominate territory and Rice finds himself with time to test the ‘keeper or pepper the goal. Combining Arsenal to win and Rice to have two or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet looks a nice angle to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

My first port of call whenever a key player leaves or suffers a serious injury is the with and without data to try and quantify how much a team will miss that player’s output. Well, since the start of the 23/24 season, Eberechi Eze – on his way to Arsenal – hasn’t started 21 games in the Premier League and in that time Palace’s win percentage goes from 40 per cent to 19 per cent and their points per game drops from 1.5 to just 1.0 per game.

Oliver Glasner has a difficult job in keeping confidence and mentality levels high within his squad after losing such an important and well-liked player.

Forest are a trustworthy team as you know exactly what you’re going to get in that they’re very good in both boxes, and are led impeccably by Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo in defence – one of the best defensive pairings in Europe.

This looks a great time to head to Selhurst Park and the away win at 21/10 with Sky Bet does appeal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Everton vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

One lazy narrative that has stuck out during the pre-season chat is how Everton could struggle without the fortress of Goodison Park and may suffer from new stadium nerves. However, the last five teams in the top two tiers of English football that have moved stadiums possess a healthy record across their first five games.

From those 25 games, they won 16 of them, losing just four.

The Hill Dickinson Stadium has been strategically built to keep the atmosphere hot and hostile and when Everton fans turn up the noise, they remain one of the most passionate set of fans in the country. Brighton are a team overrated by the markets in my view and the 19/10 with Sky Bet on Everton starting with a win at their new home looks a solid wager.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0

Fulham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

The market likes what it saw from Manchester United against Arsenal based on their win price here. They are 21/20 with Sky Bet although it doesn’t feel like particularly smart money is driving the United price into what it is. They still looked very timid in central midfield without the ball and doubts remain about whether the wing-backs – a key cog in any 3-5-2 system – provide enough attacking output to turn United into a functional and exciting team.

I like backing Fulham when they are overlooked. Marco Silva’s men are mostly ignored by the market but they took 30 of their 54 points last season against top-half teams. That’s a huge return and one that made them very profitable to back as outsiders when the price was right. You can get 6/4 with Sky Bet here on Fulham on the draw no bet market meaning stakes are refunded if the game ends level.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Newcastle vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Eddie Howe is doing a great job at using the Alexander Isak situation to bring the club together as best he can.

When St James’ Park smells disrespect, it bites back. You can expect the atmosphere to be a bearpit on Monday. Every Liverpool touch booed. Newcastle players pumped to play aggressively from the first whistle as they look to utilise that hotbed of noise to their advantage.

And that’s when the Toon are at their most dangerous.

Despite the win vs Bournemouth, Liverpool appeared more vulnerable on the break than last season as they faced more fast breaks (5) in that game than in any Premier League game at Anfield last season.

And Newcastle are built to counter-attack with a front three of Anthony Elanga, Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes perfectly equipped to hit Liverpool in transition. The hosts look a great bet in the double chance market at 4/5 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Newcastle double chance (4/5 with Sky Bet)

Jones Knows’ Best Bet:

• 1pt treble on: Micky van de Ven 1+ shots, Habib Diarra 2+ shots & Newcastle double chance (9/1 with Sky Bet)