Don’t sleep on Solana (SOL 3.06%). The world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency may be down 21% year to date, but big things could be coming soon. Solana currently has a market cap of $80 billion. Within five years, that figure could be $500 billion.

Admittedly, that’s rarified air. Only two cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin (BTC 2.86%) and Ethereum (ETH 5.79%) — have ever hit a $500 billion market cap. Let’s take a closer look at what it would take for Solana to skyrocket in value over the next five years.

New Solana ETFs

The obvious catalyst, of course, is the imminent launch of new spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Bloomberg, there is now a 95% chance of this happening in 2025. Simply stated, the Trump administration has gone all-in on crypto, and as a result, the SEC is now taking a pro-crypto stance. That dramatically boosts the chances of approval for Solana-based ETFs.

In a best-case scenario, these new spot Solana ETFs will lead a fresh infusion of new money into Solana, similar to what we saw with the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. According to estimates from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.11%), anywhere from $3 billion to $6 billion of new money could pour into Solana.

A new “killer app” for Solana

However, even if the spot Solana ETFs are a smash when they first appear (most likely sometime in Q4 2025), they probably won’t be enough for Solana to hit a $500 billion valuation. For that, Solana will need something really big. In other words, it’s going to need a “killer app” — some use or application of the Solana blockchain that is so big that it immediately attracts tens of millions of new users.

Image source: Getty Images.

The concept of a “killer app” for Solana has been floating around since October 2023, when investment firm VanEck first suggested the idea. According to VanEck, if Solana can ever find a “killer app” for its blockchain, its valuation will soar. In fact, in an ultra-bull-case scenario, Solana could eventually hit a price of $3,211. Given a coin supply of approximately 600 million, that works out to a nearly $2 trillion valuation for Solana!

So, what are some potential “killer apps”? Given that Solana is the first major blockchain to launch its own mobile phone, this “killer app” would likely be some kind of mobile phone app dedicated specifically to crypto and blockchain.

In order to reach broad mainstream adoption, this app would need to provide such a seamless experience for the user that zero blockchain or crypto experience would be required to use it. In much the same way, you don’t need any artificial intelligence (AI) expertise to use ChatGPT on your mobile phone.

Let’s think out of the box. Solana has already suggested that stablecoins — currently the fastest-growing segment of the crypto market — could be a “killer app.”Given that Solana is already a top player when it comes to decentralized finance (DeFi), this makes sense. Users would convert real-world dollars into digital dollars (i.e., stablecoins) and then put them to work within the Solana DeFi ecosystem.

Also, at the beginning of the year, Franklin Templeton (BEN 1.07%) hinted that AI agents might eventually become a “killer app” for Solana. At the time, Solana had 70% of the world’s most popular blockchain-based AI agents, and it looked like Solana was about to become an AI powerhouse. However, the hype around AI agents has largely fizzled this year, so it might be some time before this AI growth catalyst really takes off.

Price scenarios for Solana

As noted above, the current coin supply of Solana is 600 million. So, to hit a target valuation of $500 billion, Solana would need to hit a price of approximately $850. Does the math work?

The good news here is that there are some good price estimates already out in the marketplace. VanEck unveiled an ultra-bull-case scenario of $3,211 back in 2023. In January 2025, Bitwise offered an ultra-ultra-bull-case scenario of $6,636. And in May 2025, Standard Chartered gave a price prediction of $500 for Solana. According to Standard Chartered, Solana could hit that price point by 2029 if it continues to grow in several key areas, including decentralized finance.

So, in many ways, the target price of $850 is a “Goldilocks price” — not too high, not too low, but just right. Remember: Ethereum reached a $500 billion market capitalization in 2021. It’s not entirely out of the range of possibilities that Solana — already dubbed an “Ethereum killer” by many — could eventually hit a similar market cap by the end of this decade.

That would be a big jump for early Solana owners.