If China invades Taiwan, Beijing will enlist Russia’s help to tie up NATO forces in Europe, the alliance’s top official has said.

Why It Matters

China and Russia signed a “no limits partnership” just ahead of Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine in early 2022. Western officials say Chinese assistance is key to propping up Russia’s invasion of its neighbor, but Beijing has repeatedly said it is not a party to the conflict.

The war in Ukraine has brought international concerns over Beijing’s desire to bring Taiwan under its control into sharper focus, and China—a military powerhouse—has held large-scale drills around the island in recent years.

Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway part of China, to be eventually united with it under central control. Beijing has called Taiwan an “inalienable part of China,” but Taipei, which has established a democratic government, has long asserted its independence and aligned itself with Western allies.

What To Know

There is an increasing realization that if China made a move against Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping “would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rutte has previously branded Putin the Chinese president’s subordinate.

Xi would tell the Kremlin leader that Russia needs to “keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,” Rutte told The New York Times.

“That is most likely the way this will progress.” he added.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry and Chinese embassy in Washington for comment via email.

NATO officials have increasingly sounded alarm bells over worries that Russia could attack alliance territory in Europe in the next few years. Rutte’s predecessor, Jens Stoltenberg, said in 2023 China was “learning from Moscow’s military failures” in Ukraine, as well as from how the international community reacted to Russia’s invasion.

European countries are embroiled in feverish efforts to spend more on defense as the U.S.—which has supported Europe with its military for decades—swivels toward the Indo-Pacific.

U.S. officials have said Xi wants China’s armed forces to be able to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, even if war plans are not put into motion around that date.

What People Are Saying

Retired Admiral John Aquilino, speaking ahead the end of his time as the head of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Command, told lawmakers in 2024 “all indications” point to Beijing being ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Retired General Charles Flynn, who previously served as the commander of U.S. Army Pacific, said in May “the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is no longer distant or theoretical.”