My Take | AI and robotics expected to play a big role in China’s next 5-year plan

China’s five-year plan has evolved beyond a command-economy production schedule. It now represents a comprehensive vision for the country’s economic future, accompanied by strategies and policy guidelines.

As Beijing’s planners draft the next five-year plan for 2026-2030, a general consensus is emerging: development and economic growth remain paramount. In particular, China is seizing the opportunity to bolster its “hard power” through manufacturing capabilities and advances in artificial intelligence.

The coming plan is likely to reinforce existing policies that prioritise production. Under themes such as “high-quality development” and “new quality productive forces”, China is striving to solidify its position as a dominant industrial power integrated into the global economy. Its share of global manufacturing, currently at 30 per cent, could increase as the country has a clear competitive advantage in this area.

China’s successful track record in building unparalleled manufacturing capabilities across various industries – from electric vehicles to industrial robots – has strengthened Beijing’s belief that it is on the right path.
Semiconductor products at an exhibition in Shanghai. Photo: AFP
Semiconductor products at an exhibition in Shanghai. Photo: AFP
Its significant control over the rare earth trade shows how even a traditionally polluting industry can be transformed into a strategic asset. Amid US-China trade negotiations in London, talks of a potential “rare earth for chips” deal – whereby China would ease rare earth export controls in exchange for relaxed US chip export restrictions – have gained traction on Chinese social media.

At the same time, China is trying to remove so-called choke points in its supply chains, particularly in advanced chips. While its “whole nation” approach to addressing these vulnerabilities may lead to wasteful duplicate investments, the combination of state support and fierce market competition is enabling China to tackle one bottleneck after another.

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