Mobile devices are expected to continue to cement their position as the dominant holiday online shopping platform this season. Adobe predicts mobile sales will drive 56.1% of online spend (vs. desktop shopping) during the 2025 holiday season, up from 54.5% last year — and just 40% of online spend during the 2020 holiday season.

Spending originating from mobile devices is expected to jump 8.5% year-over-year this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), helping drive overall U.S. online sales over the holidays by 5.3%, to $253.4 billion.

Social media is expected to be a key underlying driver of mobile purchases over the holiday.

Adobe’s research predicts social media advertising will drive a 51% year-over-year increase in holiday online revenue, up from 5% year-over-year growth in 2024. Affiliate and influencer-driven sales are expected to expand 14%, up from 6% growth in the 2024 holiday season.

Adobe said, “While major channels such as paid search and email continue to be reliable drivers of traffic and sales online, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products.”

Also increasing the appeal of online shopping are Gen AI-boosted chat services and browsers. Gen AI-powered shopping traffic is expected to surge 520% year-on-year, following a 1,300% surge a year ago. According to an Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. adults taken in September, over one-third have used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with top use cases including research (cited by 53%), product recommendations (40%), finding deals (36%), and gift inspiration (30%).

Mobile Use, as a Tool, Increases In-Store as Well

Surveys also show consumers increasing using their mobile device as a shopping tool inside stores.

Ryder’s 10th annual e-commerce consumer study that came out last year found shoppers use their mobile phones while in stores to search for items, cited by 77%; to compare prices with items in nearby stores, 69%; to check availability at other stores, 58%; to learn more about a product, 31%; and to see other items frequently purchased with a product they’re considering, 17%.

Still, research from software company Quantum Metric last year found mobile facing challenges driving conversion on devices. The survey of 1,600 U.S. and U.K. consumers found that while 75% of consumers browse on mobile devices multiple times a day, only 26% make purchases through their phones daily.

The key cause of distrust and discomfort on mobile in making purchases is errors that cause inaccuracies or roadblocks (43%), followed by a lack of tools compared to desktop (33%), and security concerns (25%).