By Scott Hamilton

Oct. 23, 2025, © Leeham News: President Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war with China when he announced on Oct. 12 that a 100% tariff would be levied on imports to the US.

This round was a retaliatory measure against China’s restrictions on exporting rare earth materials to the US and other countries. Rare earth materials are principally sourced from China and are critical to the aerospace industry, among others.

Trump said he also might block deliveries from Boeing to China’s airlines and lessors, as well as key parts, components, and engines. A large portion of China’s current fleet is Boeing aircraft. Blocking spare parts could eventually ground in-service Boeing airplanes due to parts shortages.

US-made engines and a variety of parts and systems for China’s C909 and C919 airliners are also sourced from the US. Airbus aircraft operated by China’s airlines may also have US parts and components that could be blocked if Trump takes this action.

There was initial hand-wringing among some media that blocking deliveries would hurt Boeing. However, when Boeing’s delivery stream to China for the balance of Trump’s current term (which ends on Jan. 20, 2029) is examined, it’s clear that, while annoying, Boeing actually has few airplanes scheduled for delivery.

Deliveries to China represent between 3% and 5% of total deliveries through the balance of Trump’s term.

The China delivery data is from Cirium, as of Oct. 7. The total deliveries through 2029 are estimates from Bernstein Research.

Boeing deliveries to China represent a small single-digit percentage of total deliveries through the remainder of President Trump’s term. Credit: Leeham News.

737 MAXes represent largest portion

737s represent the greatest number scheduled for delivery to China by Boeing. Credit: Leeham News.

Boeing’s 737 MAX represents by far the largest number of types of aircraft ordered by China. Unknown is how many airplanes are destined for China in Boeing’s “Unidentified” customers backlog.

The greatest threat to Boeing with Trump’s latest gambit is the indefinite postponement of a reported order for up to 500 aircraft. As long as a trade war continues between Trump and Beijing, China won’t place any new airplane orders.

Boeing announces its third-quarter financial results next Wednesday.

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