Hong Kong’s exports surged 15.5 per cent in May from a year ago, with economists attributing the increase to the front-loading of shipments by businesses racing to beat the July deadline of a tariff truce between China and the United States.

The value of total exports reached HK$434.1 billion (US$55.3 billion) in May, the Census and Statistics Department said on Thursday. The strong performance, which followed a 14.7 per cent increase in April, comes during a 90-day grace period on tariffs running from April 9 to July 8.

Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor in the department of accountancy, economics and finance at Baptist University, said that firms were rushing to ship goods during the “90-day window”.

Looking ahead, Mak said June’s export figures should remain strong, but the outlook for July was highly uncertain.

“I am cautiously optimistic for next month, but I estimate there will be uncertain factors in July,” Mak said.

The key question was what the US would do after the grace period ended, as it could potentially raise tariffs on Southeast Asian nations as well, challenging the “China plus one” diversification strategy, he added.