The Nobel Institute believes espionage may have caused a leak that revealed Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner. Norwegian media reportedly said on Saturday that the breach was “highly likely” linked to spying.

Machado’s chances of winning the prestigious award reportedly surged from 3.75 percent to nearly 73 percent overnight on the predictive betting platform Polymarket, news agency AFP said. This spike came just hours before the Nobel Committee in Oslo officially named her as the 2025 laureate.

What further raised eyebrows was that no experts or media outlets had named Machado among the frontrunners before the announcement, sparking questions over whether confidential information had been leaked.

‘Highly likely it’s espionage’

Director of the Nobel Institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken was in an interview with Norway’s TV2 television when he said, “Highly likely it’s espionage,” reported the news agency.

Harpviken added that the institute would look into the matter and “where necessary, we will further tighten security.”

Espionage, he explained, “could make it appear as if someone on the inside deliberately leaked information. That is not likely.” He added, “It’s too certain to say for sure, but it’s no secret that the Nobel Institute is subject to espionage.

It is obvious that the institution is of interest to actors who want to acquire information, both states and other organisations. The motives can be both political and economic. This has been going on for many decades.”

Committee denies internal leak

Despite the suspicions, chairman of the Nobel Committee, Jorgen Watne Frydnes, dismissed the notion of an internal breach.

According to AFP, Frydnes told Norway’s NTB news agency on Friday, “I don’t think there have ever been any leaks in the entire history of the prize. I can’t imagine that’s the case,”

Notably, the Nobel Peace Prize selection is one of the most closely guarded processes in the world, with only a handful of individuals aware of the final decision before the announcement. While there have been previous media reports of supposed leaks, recent years had seen fewer such incidents.

Machado, who has been barred from contesting Venezuela’s 2024 presidential election, was recognised “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy,” the committee had said.

The award has reignited political reactions globally. US President Donald Trump, who has long sought the Nobel Peace Prize, criticised the decision through his office, calling it a reflection of “politics over peace.”