- The ongoing geopolitical tensions, like the US-China trade tensions and the war between Russia and Ukraine, lend support to gold.
- The pullback seems short-term amid a stronger US dollar as expectations of Fed easing continue to enhance gold’s safe-haven appeal.
- Traders look forward to FOMC’s Waller speech for further policy cues.
The gold outlook indicates a mild pullback from the record highs around $4,370 amid the improving global situation and a US dollar rebound. Despite this, the overall bias remains bullish, supported by expectations of Fed easing, ongoing geopolitical risk sentiment, and heightened demand.
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Investors are pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year, supporting non-yielding assets. Gold still stays near the record highs, maintaining its safe-haven appeal amid rate cut expectations and expanding US fiscal deficits.
Additionally, the broader geopolitical instability, such as the persistent US-China trade frictions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and central bank purchases, is likely to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Bank of Singapore and HSBC analysts emphasize that G-10 fiscal sustainability and central-bank independence are likely to extend into 2026. This further supports gold’s safe-haven demand.
World Gold Council’s Head of Middle East and Public Policy, Andrew Naylor, noted,”
Andrew Naylor, Head of the Middle East and Public Policy at the World Gold Council, said, “The rise in investment demand mainly drives the strong performance of gold in recent months. Central banks currently account for about 20% of global gold demand.” If there is any economic deterioration moving forward, gold is expected to extend towards more substantial gains.
Gold Daily Key Events
The significant events in the day include:
- FOMC member Waller speaks
Traders are looking ahead to the US inflation data and FOMC’s Waller’s speech for insights into further policy and gold direction.
Gold Technical Outlook: Unabated Bullish Pressure Despite Profit-Taking
Gold’s 4-hour chart shows the pair trading around $4,300, holding above the key moving averages. The 50-period MA is around $4,170, and the 100-period MA is near $4,035, both acting as key support levels.
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The yellow metal retracted slightly from the $4,380-4,400 level. Consequently, a slight consolidation took place amid profit-taking. Regardless, the asset maintains a bullish bias.
The RSI is at 63, below the overbought region. In case of a drop below 50, the uptrend could weaken. A break above the $4,400 level could extend gains towards the $4,450-$4,500 levels. A decisive pullback below the $4,170 level could lead to a deep correction towards the $4,035 level.
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