A lone Democrat competing for a state senate seat in a deeply Republican Atlanta suburb garnered nearly 40 per cent of votes in a special primary election in August, amplifying her party’s hope that discontent with President Donald Trump could spur future wins.
However, it remains uncertain if Debra Shigley’s success truly foreshadows a Democratic wave. Georgia Republican strategist Brian Robinson highlighted that Democrats often perform well in low-turnout special elections, and parties typically fare better locally when not in control of the executive branch.
“To read the tea leaves too much is a fool’s errand, because it’s such a low turnout,” Robinson said.
“All it shows is that Democrats are more angry than Republicans are, and fear and anger are the most important motivators in voter turnout.”
Democrats have consistently exceeded expectations in special elections nationwide since Trump took office, with data revealing a significant swing in their favour. The Downballot, tracking 39contests, indicates Democrats have, on average, performed 15.7percentage points better than Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential candidate performance.
While Republicans largely held their seats, Democrats successfully flipped a state senate seat in Pennsylvania in March, and two in Iowa during January and August.
This trend is now playing out in Georgia’s District 21, where Democrat Shigley has advanced to a September 23 runoff against Republican Jason Dickerson, who is expected to be favoured. The seat became vacant after Trump appointed state Senator Brandon Beach, who secured over 70 per cent of the vote in 2024, to serve as US treasurer.
Georgia’s special legislative elections lack party primaries, meaning Shigley competed directly against six Republican candidates. Investment company president Dickerson secured second place with 17.4 per cent of the vote.
Shigley is a lawyer and mother of five who started a business that delivers hair care services to women of color. She lives in the affluent suburb of Milton, and it is her second political race after she lost in 2024 to Republican state House Speaker Pro Tem Jan Jones.
Shigley promises to champion working families and push to lower the costs of housing, health care and groceries. But she says her campaign is also generating enthusiasm because it’s letting Democrats organize and “make their voices heard” in a moment when “folks have felt a lot of despair.”
“The chaos that’s happening right now is causing folks not just pain in their pocketbook but the anxiety when you look at the headlines and feel it’s just one chaotic measure everyday,” Shigley said at a recent campaign event in the district, which includes suburbs in Fulton and Cherokee counties about 20 miles (30 kilometers) north of downtown Atlanta.
Connor Roberts, who knocked on hundreds of doors for Shigley over the summer before starting his freshman year at college, said people may not be switching which party they vote for, but many who lean liberal are “really fired up” about Trump’s actions and are voting in special elections when they usually wouldn’t.
Dickerson, for his part, has made standard conservative appeals on the campaign trail, advocating for lower taxes, less bureaucracy, stricter immigration enforcement and election integrity. He is self-funding his race.
“Dickerson is stepping up to serve our community rather than lobbyists or special interests,” his campaign website says.
Dickerson has said his experience as a businessman would help him work with other legislators to pass conservative policies. He also touts his track record helping people access housing and scholarships through his foundation.
The Democratic Party in Cherokee County, home to most of the district, has historically been weak, according to party chair Nate Rich.
But Rich said it has come alive for Shigley’s campaign, which has drawn hundreds of volunteers and unprecedented enthusiasm from voters. In his view Democrats need a platform that promises to do more than just oppose Trump, and Shigley’s emphasis on helping working families does just that.
“The small army that we built, we’re training them up,” Rich said.
Even if Shigley loses, Democrats hope grassroots organizers will multiply statewide with races coming up in 2026 for governor, U.S senator and other offices.
“The way we win the governor’s seat and the U.S. Senate seat is by organizing up and down the ballot, and it’s races like Debra’s that are going to lay the groundwork that is going to build the broad-based coalition that we need to win,” said former state Sen. Jason Esteves, an Atlanta Democrat and gubernatorial candidate who has campaigned for Shigley multiple times.
Georgia Republican Party chairman Josh McKoon said Republicans also need to mobilize their voters to avoid losses like the 2021 U.S. Senate runoff, but the state still leans conservative.
“If Democrats are saying that because she got 39 per cent of the vote in a rock-bottom-turnout special election, that’s good news, then they’re having to look really hard to find good news for Georgia Democrats,” McKoon said.
How voters feel about Trump a year from now will matter most for the 2026 elections, said Charles Bullock III, a political science professor at the University of Georgia.
McKoon noted that the GOP picked up ground in the 2024 presidential election and is confident voters still largely support Trump statewide. But Bullock said there are signs that people across party lines are displeased with the president’s immigration crackdown and tariffs, which could continue to drive up prices.
“What’s going to be at play in 2026 is does Trump deliver on his promises, and if he does, are they still popular?” Bullock said.
Only if Democrats flip more seats across the country, he said, will Shigley’s race “tell us something broader.”
