Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3430.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3615.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3615.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3430.
The GBP/USD pair has wavered in the past few days as traders assess the next actions by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve. It was trading at 1.3525 on Monday, a few points below the year-to-date high of 1.3615.
Key US economic data ahead
The GBP/USD exchange rate moved sideways after the US published soft but better-than-expected jobs data. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed that the economy created 139,000 jobs in May, lower than the 147k it created in April.
The jobs report was much better than the ADP estimate of 37,000. It was also better than the median estimate of 116,000, and was a sign that the labor market was still strong despite the tariffs.
The next key catalyst for the GBP/USD pair will be the upcoming US inflation data on Wednesday. Economists expect the report to show that the headline and core inflation moved away from the Fed’s target of 2.0% in May.
A higher-than-expected inflation report will confirm the Fed’s fear that Trump’s tariffs will drive prices higher in the long term. As a result, it will mean that the bank will maintain higher interest rates for longer, contrary to what Trump wants.
The other key GBP/USD news will come from the UK, publishing the latest jobs data on Tuesday. While the UK jobs numbers are important, it typically don’t have a major impact on the sterling.
The UK will then publish the latest GDP, manufacturing and industrial production, and trade data on Thursday.
Also, the pair will react to the outcome of the US and China meeting on Monday. The two will deliberate on trade, possibly easing the tensions that have remained in the past few months.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has been in an uptrend in the past few months, and recently moved to 1.3613, the highest point in over a year.
It has moved above the key resistance level at 1.3430, the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern.
While the C&H pair is a bullish sign, it has formed a small double-top pattern at 1.3610. Therefore, it is likely that the pair will pull back, and possibly retest the support at 1.3430. A move above the resistance at 1.3615 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.
