Nokia Oyj (HLSE:NOKIA) has caught the attention of investors this week, after a swing in its share price that could be prompting questions about what’s really driving the move. While there’s no single event making headlines, sometimes these quieter shifts are the ones that matter, especially for investors weighing their next step. Looking at the broader picture, Nokia Oyj’s performance over the past year has been a mix of modest gains and recent losses. The stock has posted a 4.7% increase in the last year and has advanced nearly 7% this month, but momentum has faded over the longer term. Despite positive trends in annual revenue and net income growth, share price improvement has been overshadowed by prior underperformance in recent quarters. So after a year marked by ups and downs, is Nokia Oyj now trading at a bargain or are expectations for future growth already reflected in its price?

According to the most widely followed narrative, Nokia Oyj is currently trading at a discount to its estimated fair value, suggesting the stock could be undervalued based on future growth prospects and risk-adjusted returns.

Strong demand from hyperscalers (cloud/AI data centers) and U.S. and European infrastructure stimulus is expanding Nokia’s addressable market for high-capacity network equipment, supporting future top-line growth. The ongoing global build-out of fiber and advanced 5G/6G networks, accelerated by regulatory programs and large CSP capital expenditures, provides a multi-year runway for increased product and service revenues, particularly in Fixed and Optical Networks.

Want to learn the secret behind Nokia’s undervalued label? There is a growth strategy at play based on ambitious financial forecasts and a profit trajectory that could rival some of the most exciting tech stories. Big moves in future revenue, margins, and earnings are the backbone here. What are the bold financial leaps this narrative is betting on? Dive into the details to uncover the assumptions behind this fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of €4.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, shifting currency conditions and lingering weakness in mobile networks could quickly undermine the current optimism surrounding Nokia’s valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Nokia Oyj narrative.

While the market’s preferred yardstick points to good value for Nokia, our SWS DCF model tells a different story. According to this method, Nokia is trading slightly above our estimate of fair value. Which approach deserves your trust?