EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1740 – 1.1680 – 1.1590.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1820 – 1.1880 – 1.2000.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1630 with a target of 1.1820 and a stop-loss at 1.1560.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1840 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The Euro’s continuous rise is attracting the attention of European Central Bank (ECB) officials, especially as the EUR/USD currency pair approaches the psychological resistance level of 1.2000. According to performance across reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD jumped towards the 1.1810 resistance level, the highest for the prominent currency pair in the forex market since August 2021, before settling around 1.1795 at the start of today’s trading session. As we predicted at the beginning of this week, the EUR/USD will remain on its bullish path until markets react to the announcement of US jobs data at the end of the week, which strongly influences the future policies of the US Federal Reserve.
In this regard, selling pressure on the US dollar has increased recently amid US President Trump’s demands that Fed Chairman Powell cut interest rates or face being dismissed after next May, the official end of Jerome Powell’s term as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve.
Trading Tips:
We still advise selling EUR/USD rather than risking buying at its highest levels.
Will the EUR/USD rise towards the 1.2000 high soon?
The answer is yes; the EUR/USD could rise towards the psychological peak of 1.2000 if its current gaining factors continue. [Get an exclusive free trading bonus – This sentence has been translated but it seems like a promotional message from the original source. I’ve kept it for accuracy but note its nature.] However, it’s crucial to consider that European Central Bank policymakers have begun to comment on the Euro’s rise, hinting that it could become problematic if it continues on its current trajectory. In this context, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, stated that the EUR/USD exchange rate rising above 1.20 “would be much more complicated.” He added that until then, “we can overlook it a little.”
This is the first time in the current cycle of EUR/USD gains that an ECB member appears to be outlining their stance. This is important because it could start to influence ECB policy, as efforts would be made to curb this rise. Consequently, the market might become more cautious in tracking the exchange rate beyond this point.
Consequently, the market may become more cautious in monitoring the exchange rate after this point.
Furthermore, the EUR/USD reaching that 1.2000 psychological resistance would strongly confirm the technical indicators moving towards strong overbought levels, as is evident in the path of the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index), which has breached the 70 line, and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines (closing at 12.26). Today’s EUR/USD trading will remain in a state of cautious anticipation for the announcement of US jobs data, which will be released at 3:30 PM Egypt time. This includes the Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the unemployment rate. The report is being released today instead of Friday due to a holiday in US markets.
Overall, the reaction of markets and investors to the US employment report will shape the EUR/USD’s weekly close, most likely leading to a new upward movement.
Please consider that the EUR/USD pair has risen by approximately 15% in 2025, peaking at 1.1829 on July 1. For European importers, this rise in the Euro’s value is welcome as it lowers the cost of imports, and European tourists looking to visit the United States for their summer holidays will also welcome the developments. However, for European exporters, this rise is not welcome, as it reduces the value of their overseas earnings. This rise comes at a time when the European industrial sector is looking to recover from a very difficult period.
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