Strong waves fueled by Hurricane Otis pound a beach in Acapulco, Mexico in 2023. Researchers at Colorado State University predicted the 2024 hurricane season will have 23 named storms, with 11 of those becoming hurricanes. File Photo by David Guzman/EPA-EFE
April 4 (UPI) — Colorado State University on Thursday predicted high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity in an initial 2024 forecast.
CSU hurricane researchers are gearing up for an “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, according to the report released Thursday.
Record warm temperatures in the tropical and eastern subtropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean are the primary cause of this anticipated high activity, researchers said in a statement.
“A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water,” the statement read. “In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.”
Current El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to transition to La Niña conditions by the peak of Atlantic hurricane season from August to October, leading to hurricane-favorable conditions.
NOAA in February issued a La Niña watch with the expectation that it could replace El Niño conditions by summer’s end. The organization also said the change in conditions could result in an active tropical season and that it could also impact conditions for next winter in the United States.
The CSU Tropical Weather and Climate team predicted 23 named storms from June through November, 11 of which are expected to become hurricanes, with five to reach major hurricane strength.
Comparatively, the average forecasted hurricanes from 1991 to 2020 was 7.2, with 3.2 of those reaching major status.
Last hurricane season featured 19 named storms, with only four of them directly impacting the United States. The storm of the year, Hurricane Idalia, was a Category 3 hurricane that pummeled Florida in late August.
AccuWeather late in March predicted this hurricane season is shaping up to be even worse.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to match highly active seasons observed in 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020, according to CSU
“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU said in a statement. “This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook.”
The report also predicted a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coastline, compared to a 43% average from 1880 to 2020.
CSU said it will issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
