(Bloomberg) — Chinese banks helped clients offload overseas currencies at the fastest pace since 2020 last month, as optimism toward further yuan appreciation grew.
Lenders sold a net $51.8 billion of foreign exchange on behalf of their customers in September, the largest monthly amount since December 2020, according to official data released late Wednesday. The clients include exporters, importers and some investors in overseas financial assets.
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The data points to bullish sentiment toward the yuan, after the currency reached its strongest since November last month. More foreign exchange conversions by local exporters could support the yuan through renewed trade tensions with the US.
“The net surplus in FX settlement indicates that inflows into China were picking up, helping to support the yuan, while exporter conversion has also accelerated,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.
The figures highlighted a spike in currency conversions for the goods trade, amid robust export growth in September. This helped offset an outflow from securities investment, as separate central bank data showed foreign institutions continued to cut onshore bond holdings last month.
Analysts interviewed by Bloomberg last month expect Chinese exporters to convert hundreds of billions of dollars to their home currency, if the yuan extends its rally toward 7.00. The onshore yuan traded around the 7.12 per dollar level on Wednesday.
The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily reference rate at its strongest in about a year this month, after President Donald Trump ramped up tariff threats against China in early October.
With the PBOC favoring yuan strength and nudging the fixing stronger, “we could see further increase in exporter conversion ratios for the rest of the year, which would lead to further yuan appreciation,” Khoon said.
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