Can NuScale’s Soaring Share Price Be Justified After Recent SMR Project Rumors?

If you have your eye on NuScale Power, you are certainly not alone. Investors have been buzzing about this stock, and it is not hard to see why. The last year has seen NuScale Power’s share price rocket by 236.2%, and the momentum has only built from there with a remarkable 158.6% year-to-date surge. Even over just the past seven days, the stock has jumped 16.8%. This pattern hints at a powerful shift in how the market views NuScale’s prospects, perhaps driven by newfound optimism about small modular nuclear reactors or broader shifts in the clean energy sector.

That being said, when share prices climb this quickly, investors naturally wonder: are we looking at an undervalued opportunity, or is the stock getting ahead of itself? According to our quantitative valuation screening, NuScale Power earns a value score of 1 out of a possible 6. In other words, it checks off just one box for being undervalued on standard metrics, which is something worth keeping in mind as excitement grows.

Before making any decisions, it pays to pause and look past the headline figures. Up next, we will break down exactly how NuScale fares under different valuation yardsticks, and later, I will share an approach to valuation that provides a deeper, more nuanced perspective than the checklists most investors rely on.

NuScale Power scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model helps investors estimate a company’s value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to present value. In essence, DCF considers what NuScale Power’s future cash earnings would be worth if received today, helping to determine whether its stock is undervalued or overvalued.

For NuScale Power, the most recent Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at -$96.86 million, reflecting ongoing investments and negative cash generation. Analysts provide projections for the next five years, indicating continued negative free cash flow through 2028. The company is expected to turn positive in 2029, with estimated FCF of $15.25 million. The 10-year FCF outlook, based on further extrapolation, forecasts a steady climb, reaching $50.16 million by 2035.

Despite these anticipated improvements, the DCF model values NuScale Power shares at just $1.18 per share. With the current share price significantly higher, this implies the stock is estimated to be 3782.9% overvalued according to this approach.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NuScale Power.

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