Islamabad, Pakistan – With clasped hands and half-smiles, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, China and Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban posed as they gathered in Kabul on Wednesday for a trilateral meeting.

It was the second such meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar and their Afghan counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi in 12 weeks, after they huddled together in Beijing in May.

That May meeting had led to the resumption of diplomatic ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan after a period of high tension between them. It also set the stage for talks on extending the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – a part of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – into Afghanistan. The BRI is a network of ports, railroads and highways aimed at connecting Asia, Africa and Europe.

But as China plans to expand its footprint in the region, its attempts to forge peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan reflect its unease over the security of its interests even along the existing CPEC, say analysts.

And while Beijing is a vital partner to both Islamabad and Kabul, experts believe its influence over both remains untested, as does China’s willingness to take on the risks that it might confront if it seeks to bring Pakistan and the Taliban, once thick allies but now embittered neighbours, back into a trusted embrace, they say.

The Sixth Trilateral Foreign Ministers Dialogue was held on 20 August 2025 in Kabul between Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister of Pakistan @MIshaqDar50, Foreign Minister of China @MFA_China, and Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan @mfa_afghanistan, focusing on political,… pic.twitter.com/i6n8I2oYgr

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Pakistan (@ForeignOfficePk) August 20, 2025

Shifting regional dynamics

The Beijing conclave took place under the shadow of a four-day conflict between Pakistan and India, but much has changed since then on the regional chessboard.

In recent months, Pakistan – long seen as China’s closest ally and reliant on its northeastern neighbour for military and economic support – has strengthened ties with the United States, Beijing’s main global rival.

China, for its part, has resumed engagement with India, Pakistan’s arch adversary and its key competitor for regional influence. India has also continued to deepen ties with the Afghan Taliban, who have ruled Afghanistan since August 2021, following the withdrawal of US forces.

Pakistan and Afghanistan, meanwhile, remain at odds. Islamabad was once the Taliban’s chief patron. Now, it accuses the group of providing a safe haven to groups carrying out cross-border violence, while Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of human rights violations by expelling Afghan refugees.

Amid this, China has positioned itself as mediator, a role driven largely by the CPEC, the $62bn infrastructure project running from the Pakistan-China border in the north to Gwadar Port in Balochistan.

A senior Pakistani diplomat with direct knowledge of the recent Pakistani interactions with their Chinese and Afghan counterparts said China, as a common neighbour, places a premium on neighbourhood diplomacy. For China, he added, a peaceful neighbourhood is essential.

“China has attached high importance to stability and security to pursue and expand its larger BRI project, so expansion of westward connectivity and development can only succeed when, among others, these two countries are stabilised,” the official told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.

“Development and connectivity cannot be achieved in the absence of security. Hence its efforts to bring the two neighbours together,” he added.

CPEC under strain

CPEC, launched in 2015 under then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, elder brother of current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has been hailed by many in Pakistan as a “game-changer” for the country – a giant investment with the potential to create jobs and build the economy.

But the project has slowed down in recent years. Later this month, Prime Minister Sharif is expected to travel to China to formally launch the second phase of the CPEC.

While political upheaval has hampered progress, China’s primary concerns remain the safety of infrastructure and the security of its nationals, who have frequently been targeted.

Separatist groups in Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest but poorest province, have long attacked Chinese personnel and installations, accusing them of exploiting local resources. Attacks on Chinese citizens have also occurred in Pakistan’s north.

Nearly 20,000 Chinese nationals currently live in Pakistan, according to government figures. Since 2021, at least 20 have been killed in attacks across the country.

Stella Hong Zhang, assistant professor at Indiana University Bloomington in the US, said China has long wanted to bring Afghanistan into the CPEC, to expand the project’s scope and to promote regional integration.

But Zhang, whose research focuses on China’s global development engagement, said it is unclear how convinced Beijing is about investing in either Afghanistan or Pakistan.

“China might promise investments, but even though we are seeing actions on China’s diplomacy front,” she told Al Jazeera, it is uncertain whether officials in the two nations “will be able to convince China’s state-owned enterprises and banks to invest in further projects in both countries, given CPEC’s disappointing track record and the substantial risks in both countries”.

For Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, improvement in Pakistan’s internal security is paramount for China.

“This concern is what guides Beijing’s push for improvement in Pak-Afghan bilateral ties since the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is operating from the Afghan soil, while Baloch militant groups have also found space in Afghanistan,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Through high-level trilateral talks, Beijing is aiming to narrow Islamabad-Kabul differences and also urge both sides to address each other’s security concerns to avert a breakdown of ties,” he added.

Pakistan Taliban, also known as TTP, founded in 2007, is a group which is ideologically aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan but operates independently both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban has repeatedly rejected allegations that it allows its soil to be used for attacks against Pakistan and has consistently denied any ties with the TTP.

Security challenges

Since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, Pakistan has faced a sharp rise in violence, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, both bordering Afghanistan.

Islamabad has repeatedly alleged that Afghan soil is being used by armed groups, especially the TTP, to launch attacks across the porous frontier.

Data from the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) shows that in the first six months of 2025, 502 fighter attacks killed 737 people, including 284 security personnel and 267 civilians.

Compared with the first half of 2024, fighter attacks rose 5 percent, deaths surged 121 percent, and injuries increased 84 percent, according to PICSS.

China, too, has also voiced concern over the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), accusing its fighters of using Afghan territory to launch attacks against China.

Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, China has emerged as South Asia’s main geopolitical player.

“Without addressing Pakistan’s Afghan-centric security concerns, BRI’s Pakistan component, CPEC, will remain underutilised and underdeveloped. Hence, China has started the trilateral to help Afghanistan and Pakistan resolve their security issues under a holistic policy which tries to isolate economy and diplomacy from security trouble,” he told Al Jazeera.

Faisal, of the University of Technology Sydney, added that China brings political weight, offering both diplomatic backing at multilateral organisations – particularly on counterterrorism – and the promise of economic inducements.

But he was cautious about Beijing’s long-term leverage. “Beyond underlining the importance of stability via enhanced security coordination between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the outcomes of China’s efforts have been limited, partially due to Beijing’s own security anxieties,” he said.

The senior Pakistani diplomat said China’s BRI and related projects have brought it leverage in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and expressed optimism that Beijing could bring about change between Pakistan and Afghanistan “armed with the political, diplomatic, economic and financial tools”, even if results have so far been limited.

But will China act as mediator and guarantor between Pakistan and Afghanistan? The diplomat was sceptical.

“As for guarantorship, I’m not sure whether China is willing or keen to do so. It certainly can play that role because of a high degree of trust it enjoys, but whether it would do so or not remains to be seen,” he said.