The British pound is relatively quiet during the trading session on Friday against the Swiss franc, as we sit on top of the major support level in the form of the 1.07 CHF level. This is a market that’s been in a significant downtrend for a while, so it does make a certain amount of sense that eventually we have to take a bit of a breather from the selling pressure.
However, you have to keep in mind that this is a pair that is highly sensitive to risk appetite, so if we suddenly see a massive “risk on move” in financial markets, then it’s likely that money will flow out of Switzerland, perhaps even a bit of a knock on effect in this market as well, as the Swiss franc should in theory at least weaken. Keep in mind that the Swiss National Bank chose not to go into negative interest rate territory yet, but they do still have that option, and if things get worse, it’s very likely that they will do so in order to keep the Swiss franc reasonably priced against other currencies around the world.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis market is likely to be looked at as bearish, and quite frankly we are below what could be thought of as a downtrend line, and the 50 Day EMA. Short-term rallies at this point in time will more likely than not continue to see the 1.0785 level, where the 50 Day EMA currently sits, as significant resistance. Above there, we also have the 1.08 level offering even more resistance due to the psychology of the large, round, psychologically significant figure and the fact that it had been support previously offering potential “market memory.”
If we break down below the 1.0675 level, then it’s likely that the British pound will drop significantly from here, perhaps looking to the 1.06 level underneath. At this point, I think we are in a state of stasis, suggesting that we just don’t have clear direction in the short term, and will have to see the British pound proven itself to start buying. In the short term, fading short-term rallies probably continues to be the trade most people take.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
