- AUD/USD price falls to a three-week low on Friday.
- US GDP was revised higher to 3.8% and jobless claims fell to 218K.
- Traders await U.S. core PCE inflation data for fresh direction.
The AUD/USD price fell to 3-week lows on Thursday, pressured by a resurgent US dollar after a raft of stronger-than-expected data. The US Q2 GDP was revised to 3.8% year-over-year (y/y) from 3.3% previously, highlighting the resilience of the US economy. Meanwhile, the jobless claims fell 14k to 218k, the lowest level in two months, revealing a stronger labor market.
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These robust numbers have tempered the expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed. While the Fed delivered its first cut in the last meeting since December 2024, policymakers have emphasized the importance of inflation and employment trends for future rate cuts. A stronger growth and broader economic performance could provide the US dollar with renewed momentum against the Australian dollar.
From Australia, there’s no major domestic catalyst, essentially leaving the currency reactive to the USD dynamics. With subdued global risk sentiment and a sideways trend in commodities, the AUD/USD price stays vulnerable to dollar strength and a shift in Fed expectations.
Key Events Ahead: US Core PCE Index
The immediate focus of the markets remains on the US Core PCE Index data, with economists expecting a 0.2% monthly and 2.7% yearly rise. A stronger print could further reinforce a slower pace for Fed easing, keeping AUD/USD under pressure. Conversely, cooling data could dampen the recent strength of the dollar.
AUD/USD Price Technical Analysis: Bears Stronger Under 200-MA
The AUD/USD has closed below the 200-period MA on the 4-hour chart, the first time since 2nd September, suggesting prevailing weakness towards the 0.6500 level. The prices are currently consolidating around the lows, awaiting a catalyst to provide impetus. Meanwhile, the key MAs like 20, 50, and 100 are also pointing downwards, reinforcing a view to test August lows of 0.6415.
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The immediate support for the pair lies at yesterday’s lows of 0.6525, ahead of 0.6500 and then 0.6450. On the upside, the immediate resistance is at the 200-period MA near 0.6550, ahead of 0.6580 and then 0.6600. As long as the price stays below the 200-period MA, the path of least resistance lies on the downside.
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