My previous AUD/USD signal on 19th June produced a profitable long trade from the bullish rejection of the support level at $0.6450.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.50%
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6590, $0.6615, or $0.6625.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas

• Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6553, $0.6505, or $0.6484.
• Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
• Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

In my previous AUD/USD forecast almost two weeks ago, I wrote that this currency pair was looking bearish due to the ongoing war between Iran and Israel at the time, which appeared at imminent risk of escalating.

This was not so useful on the day itself, as the best opportunity that day was a long trade, but over the next days the dominant direction was downwards.

The technical picture has changed as risk sentiment has made a strong recovery following the conclusion of this war, with major US equity indices rising to new record highs, while the US Dollar continues to sell off as President Trump does his best to talk down the Fed’s 4.25% interest rate.

These factors have kept the price moving higher here in an orderly way. The price chart below shows we have just below us right now a very clear “stairstep” support level at $0.6553. If this level is rejected today, especially if the bullish bounce also rejects the half number at $0.6550, then that would be a good opportunity to enter a long trade. I see this as the best opportunity that is likely to set up today in this currency pair.

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Forecast at 1:15pm London time.

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