If you’re holding Vistra (VST) stock or thinking about getting in, you are not alone. The stock has drawn plenty of attention lately, sparked by a combination of shifting earnings forecasts and buzz around the company’s latest moves in renewables and AI-driven efficiency. With an expected dip in earnings per share alongside projections for revenue growth, investors are watching closely to see whether these trends signal a new chapter of growth or a short-term bump in the road.

Momentum has been building through the year, as Vistra’s focus on expanding renewable energy projects and tapping AI for operational improvements has fueled investor appetite. Although the stock has had its ups and downs recently, the overall return over the past year is impressive, up nearly 147%. That long-term climb, combined with the current spotlight on changing earnings expectations, puts Vistra in a unique position compared to many energy peers.

After a run like this, is Vistra’s stock already pricing in all those future gains, or could there still be an opportunity to buy in before the market catches up?

According to the most widely followed perspective, Vistra is seen as modestly undervalued. This view is based on expectations for continued earnings growth and improving profitability that have yet to be fully reflected in the current share price.

Accelerated diversification into grid-scale battery storage and renewable projects, leveraging existing sites and interconnects, positions Vistra to capture growth from rising demand for grid flexibility, reliability services, and support for decarbonization. This widens future revenue streams and improves net margins.

Is Vistra about to unleash a new phase of growth? The forces behind its valuation hinge on ambitious expansion targets, transformative industry shifts, and projections for stronger margins. Want to see what hidden assumptions analysts are using to calculate this fair value, and what makes their growth outlook so aggressive? Take a closer look to uncover the forecasted blueprint driving this narrative’s bullish price target.

Result: Fair Value of $218.24 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, execution missteps with new renewables or a downturn in energy prices could undermine the growth trajectory that analysts are counting on.

Find out about the key risks to this Vistra narrative.

Looking at Vistra through a different lens, our SWS DCF model sharply disagrees with the previous approach and sees the stock as even more undervalued. Could this difference reveal deeper potential, or is something being overlooked?