Of late, there have been speculative reports and analyst opinion articles about ‘changes’ in the power circles of China, several of which implied that President Xi Jinping, the ‘Chairman of everything’, may be on his way out. While we have seen this movie before, produced by Western intelligence agencies and planted in media, this time there are some facts to back up these theories. It is too early to write off the 72-year-old Chinese leader. But it’s not a secret that he had made too many enemies inside and outside China, and many of them want to see him gone. But why are the speculations of a ‘regime change’ brewing again? Here is what you should know:
Unusual political signals emerge from China
A former US diplomat, Gregory W Slayton, recently listed a series of events and incidents that point to something shaking in the secretive power structures of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Writing in the New York post, Slayton noted that Xi, who is the CCP General Secretary, was absent from public view for nearly two weeks in late May and early June this year. Foreign dignitaries usually welcomed by Xi were hosted in Beijing by other senior CCP leaders in this period.
Unlike always, the Chinese state media also did not feature Xi Jinping prominently on its front pages. His meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in early June was in an informal setting at Zhongnanhai, without state ceremonies or the large entourage.
The author also pointed to some removals at the top order of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Several generals, thought to be Xi loyalists, were removed, and General Zhang Youxia is reportedly the de facto head of the Chinese armed forces.
Interestingly, a mausoleum built for Xi Jinping’s father was recently “unnamed,” a highly unusual move. There is also speculations of a reduction in Xi’s personal security detail.
Whether it is an accident or not, Chinese state media did not use Xi’s official title when reporting his recent phone conversation with US President Donald Trump, but corrected it later.
While any criticism of Xi is not tolerated, some Chinese academicians have been able to get away with articles critical of Xi, noted the author.
A series of high-level political and military changes, prosecutions
The changes are happening amid some high-level investigations of Chinese officials: two former defence ministers were investigated for corruption. Former foreign minister Qin Gang was removed from his post, while a senior military official was also investigated last November.
In March, Western media outlets reported that He Weidong, a senior Chinese military official seen close to Xi, was arrested. He was the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), a five-member body in charge of the PLA. His rise was seen as a consequence of his closeness to Xi.
Changes in Politburo: Senior officials in rare swapping of roles
In April, two members of the 24-member Politburo of CCP swapped positions in an unprecedented move. State media called it a reshuffle, without giving any reasons.
Shi Taifeng was appointed the head of the Organisation Department, which oversees internal personnel decisions, while Li Ganjie was named chief of the United Front Work Department, which is responsible for the party’s relations with religious and ethnic groups, and Hong Kong and Taiwan.
These officials, promoted to the Politburo in 2022, are not part of the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s highest decision-making body.
Shi Taifeng, 68, previously led the United Front Work Department. A top party official in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, Shi was also the president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former official at the Central Party School.
Li Ganjie, 60, currently the youngest Politburo member, has a background in nuclear safety, and was the environmental protection minister and governor of Shandong province. His rise has been described as rapid, as his Politburo appointment came less than two years after becoming governor.
Who can replace Xi?
As per the Slayton’s claims, Wang Yang, a senior CCP figure and former Politburo Standing Committee member, could be a potential candidate for future leadership.
Some indications might come in the next party plenary in August 2025. But take it all with a pinch of salt, as much of this could be Western propaganda.
