Whippany, New Jersey
 — 

Donald Trump may not be on the ballot in the fall’s biggest political races, but both sides are counting on him to help them win.

A year after winning back the White House, Republicans are racing to motivate voters who love the president and Democrats are rallying those who don’t, as the races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia play out as an early referendum on Trump’s second term.

“If you get a flat tire on the way home today, she’s going to blame President Trump,” said Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee in New Jersey, drawing laughs as he takes aim at his Democratic rival, Rep. Mikie Sherrill. “There’s nothing she won’t blame on the president.”

Facing a fierce fight, Sherrill is quick to invoke Trump in a different way, telling supporters: “That tariff plan? It’s a world-wide extortion scheme so that the Trump family can make billions of dollars. That is not creating opportunity for anyone in New Jersey.”

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states in the country that hold gubernatorial elections the year after a presidential campaign. The races could provide an early glimpse at the mood of the electorate, particularly toward the president’s party, but also as a test of enthusiasm as Democrats scramble to rebuild.

The White House is keeping a close eye on both contests, yet Trump has only made a formal endorsement in New Jersey. He is poised to record messages on behalf of Ciattarelli and hold telephone rallies for his campaign, both of which are intended to specifically remind Trump voters about the urgency of the Nov. 4 contest.

“We’re deploying his help in very strategic ways,” said Ciattarelli, who is seeking to walk a careful line of tapping into forces of the MAGA movement, while trying to dampen criticism of being too aligned with Trump. “This race is about New Jersey. It’s not about the president.”

In Virginia, the government shutdown hangs over the race, with hundreds of thousands of federal workers, active-duty military and government contractors living in the state. The contest between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, is seen as less competitive, which is among the reasons that aides to Trump say he has kept more of a distance.

It’s far from certain how successful attempts to insert Trump into the race will be – or whether they could backfire on Democrats. He made significant gains in both states last fall, but his improvement was particularly notable in New Jersey, where Trump lost by 6 points after a punishing 16-point defeat in 2020.

Sherrill and Spanberger, who were among the Democrats elected to Congress in 2018 during the first midterm election of Trump’s presidency, are relying less on arguments of protecting democracy and more on the tangible impacts of Trump’s policies in his second term.

When the president said from the Oval Office this week that he “terminated” the Gateway tunnel, a $16 billion commuter rail between New Jersey and New York, as retribution to Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer, Sherrill seized on the moment. She said New Jersey would lose tens of thousands of jobs and residents would suffer because of Trump’s actions.

“We see an out of control president, just at his whim, saying he’s going to cancel it,” Sherrill told reporters Thursday. “We are going to stand up and fight for that.”

Less than three weeks before the election, the president’s words injected a fresh headache into the race for Ciattarelli and set the table for a real-world test of his embrace of Trump. He said he supported the “a critical infrastructure project,” adding New Jersey needed a new governor who had a good relationship “and when necessary, disagree” with Trump.

The Trump effect is on full display in dueling campaign ads, where Sherill repeatedly calls her rival “Jack Ciattarelli, the Trump of Trenton.” Ciattarelli fires back, saying: “New Jersey’s a mess and all Mikie Sherrill wants to talk about is President Trump. Come on.”

It’s also playing out on the debate stage when candidates were asked to grade Trump’s performance. Ciattarelli gave him an “A,” saying: “I think he’s right about everything he’s doing.” Sherrill blasted her opponent and his support of Trump, declaring: “I’d give him an F.”

For Republicans, it’s yet another test of how many Trump voters will cast ballots in elections in which his name is not on the ballot. The outcome could provide important lessons for both parties heading into the 2026 midterm elections, with control of Congress on the line.

With early voting well underway in New Jersey and Virginia, conversations with voters suggest an exhaustion factor with Trump. Yet, for many, it’s unclear whether the president will be a deciding factor in a race driven by economic concerns like affordability and a call for change.

Sherrill is seeking to replace New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, who has been in office for eight years. Not since 1961 have Democrats won three consecutive elections as governor.

“This is not Trump’s race, it’s Jack’s race,” said Kathy Mueller Rohan, a voter from Morris County, New Jersey, which Trump narrowly carried last fall after losing it by about 4 points in 2020. “I don’t think he needs Trump to win.”

But she believes the president could be helpful, particularly in places where he gained ground. New Jersey is among the states that saw some of the biggest swings toward Republicans in his third presidential election, particularly in non-white communities, which is one of the reasons Democrats have been sounding the alarm about the Sherrill-Ciattarelli race.

“Quite frankly we’re concerned Donald Trump won Passaic County in last year’s election, so we have our work cut out for us,” said Mayor Andre Sayegh of Paterson, who supports Sherrill. “We’re being very aggressive in attempting to organize and motivate voters turned off by Trump.”

The shift towards Trump in Passaic County, home to a large Hispanic community, is one of many painful snapshots of the last election that has not been forgotten by Democrats. It’s a county that Joe Biden won by more than 16 points in 2020 and Trump won by nearly 3 points in 2024.

Sayegh, whose office walls are decorated with pictures of John F. Kennedy, said cultural issues have driven many voters in his area away from the Democratic Party. He believes this election is an opportunity for Democrats to rebuild and, perhaps, rebrand.

“It’s not a year ago – now he’s in!” Sayegh said, reflecting on the first year of Trump’s second term. “People, quite frankly, may have voters’ remorse. We’re banking on that voters’ remorse.”