The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) found room on the high side on Wednesday, climbing into a second day of recovery flows and testing territory north of 46,600 before settling back to flat for the day. Another round of Wall Street earnings reports is kicking off the quarterly review period on a high note, with investment bank and luxury handbag earnings outpacing expectations.
Still-rising trade tensions between the US and China are still simmering away on the back burner, and the ongoing US government shutdown remains a key sticking point for global markets, but equities remain focused on earnings, the one blue patch in an otherwise grey sky.
Earnings trump trade wars and non-functioning governments, apparently
Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) both beat earnings expectations during the third quarter, rising nearly 6% and 5% respectively, on Wednesday. French luxury goods conglomerate Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMH) soared over 12% on the day after thumping earnings expectations, further bolstering broad-market expectations that companies will continue to churn out record-setting earnings periods.
Official US datasets remain a large blank space as the Trump administration largely avoids getting involved in solving the federal government’s ongoing funding shutdown. Little indication has been given that the two sides of the US government are in a particular rush to bring an end to the federal closure, sparking comments from Trump aides that a sweeping firing of government workers is now underway. A federal judge in San Francisco issued a sweeping block of any firings by the Trump administration, at the specific request of multiple federal worker unions, a move that will both draw ire from President Trump and further assuage any concerns about long-term fallout from the shutdown for investors.
Investors also continue to brush off any negative outcomes from the government data freeze, largely due to a lack of any official reporting on labor, wages, and employment makes it easier for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its near-term trajectory of delivering two more interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
Dow Jones daily chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
