Elon Musk’s surprise push to create a new political party is already shaking up the 2026 landscape, with fresh polling showing early momentum behind his outsider bid.

A new survey conducted by Quantus Insights between June 30-July 2 among 1,000 registered voters found that 40 percent of voters—including many Republican voters—say they would consider backing the Tesla and SpaceX CEO’s party over traditional GOP or Democratic candidates. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Why It Matters

Musk, who left the Trump administration in May, touted forming a new political party, which he called the “America Party,” after revealing he was fiercely opposed to President Donald Trump‘s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which narrowly passed the House on Thursday.

“If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day,” he wrote in a string of posts on Monday. “Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a VOICE.”

The poll suggests Musk’s new party could split conservative coalitions and draw in independents.

What To Know

According to the survey, 14 percent of voters said they would be “very likely” to support or vote for Musk’s proposed party if it were launched, while 26 percent said they would be “somewhat likely.” Another 38 percent said they were not likely to support it, while 22 percent remained unsure.

The survey also revealed clear divides across party lines and demographics. Among men who identify as Republicans, interest was especially strong: 23 percent said they are “very likely” and 34 percent say “somewhat likely” to back the America Party—a total of 57 percent expressing openness to Musk’s political brand. Male independents were also a promising base, with nearly half (47 percent) saying they’re likely to support it.

In contrast, Democrats appeared far more skeptical. Just 7 percent of male Democrats said they would be “very likely” to support Musk’s party, while 36 percent said they would not likely back it at all. Among female Democrats, only 5 percent are “very likely” supporters.

The poll also revealed dissatisfaction with both main parties.

When asked which party best reflects American values, nearly a third of voters said “neither.” Among independents, that share was even higher, with 59 percent saying neither the Republican nor Democratic Party represents values of America. By comparison, 37 percent of voters said the Republican Party best reflects American values, while 31 percent chose the Democratic Party.

In a blog post, Quantus pollster Jason Corley wrote that the results indicate an “erosion” of “institutional loyalty, of cultural cohesion, and of trust.”

He added: “The signal is clear: a large slice of the electorate is open to something new, something disruptive. This is not about Musk. It’s about the growing sense that the existing order is failing to represent the country as it truly is, or wants to be.”

Musk’s net favorability rating currently stands at -18 points, according to pollster Nate Silver‘s tracker.

Musk, who left the Trump administration in May after leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) for four months, has said that around 80 percent of Americans lie outside the ideological extremes represented by Democrats and Republicans—a potentially appealing talking point for an alternative political movement.

But experts that Newsweek has spoken to have expressed doubt that the party would be able to make an impact.

What People Are Saying

Quantus Insights said on X: “The poll’s intent was to simply capture the idea of another option, specifically one backed my Musk. 40 percent support isn’t surprising. There are many out there who are absolutely shocked by the level of support when, in fact, it shouldn’t be much of a shock at all. This kind of question always polls well. In 2023, 63 percent of Americans supported a third party, the highest in Gallup’s 20-year trend.”

Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, previously told Newsweek that “third parties do not tend to have a long lifetime in American politics,” adding that Musk’s new party “would likely split the Republican vote, potentially resulting in a Democrat-dominated House of Representatives, at least in the short term, due to the winner-takes-all electoral system.”

Mark Shanahan, a political scientist at the University of Surrey, who focuses on the U.S., echoed that skepticism, telling Newsweek: “I wouldn’t hold out too much hope for an ‘America Party’ for a number of reasons. First, history is against it. The USA is a strongly two-party political system,” he noted, pointing out that “around 90 percent [of Americans] actively identify with either the Republicans or Democrats,” even if formal party membership is relatively low.

What Happens Next

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act now heads to Trump’s desk, where he is expected to sign it on Friday.