【杜蘭說AI】OpenAI 超越SpaceX

這個國慶假期,OpenAI可是一點沒閒著。9月23號剛接下英偉達1000億美元的算力投資,10月1號就扔出Sora 2和獨立APP,緊接著6號召開開發者大會,之後又傳出估值沖破5000億美元,超越馬斯克的SpaceX,成了全球估值最高的獨角獸。這還沒完,OpenAI還入股了AMD,一手握英偉達,一手押注 AMD,算力布局已經拉開陣仗。 嗨,大家好,我是杜蘭,帶你一起探索科技前沿。 能看出來,OpenAI在下一盤大棋,而這盤棋的核心,就是Sam Altman一直以來的野心:要做AI時代的“操作系統”,而這一切的根基不是模型,而是算力。 你可能會好奇,黃仁勳那 1000 億美元到底要怎麽花?答案是:建10吉瓦規模的超級數據中心,相當於400萬到500萬個GPU,差不多是英偉達今年一整年的出貨量。黃仁勳自己都說,這是驅動下一個智能時代的布局。而更重要的是,這筆錢不是白拿,OpenAI拿了錢還得回頭買英偉達的芯片,等於把未來幾年的算力供應死死鎖在一起。 有了這打底,Sora 2才敢放開手腳。它不僅推出高耗能的商用功能,還直接瞄準 C 端,做了一款體驗酷似 TikTok 的獨立 APP,核心的“Cameo入鏡”功能,錄段音視頻,就能把自己“塞”進各種天馬行空的場景中,還能授權朋友一起用你的形象創作。比如你想拍一段 “遊覽巴黎鐵塔” 的旅遊視頻,或者給家里老人做一段 “置身老家院子里” 的節日問候,不用出門、不用覆雜剪輯,手機錄一段自己的畫面就能實現。 Sam Altman的“分身”還成了熱門,各種創意視頻在平台刷屏,APP上線後第三天登頂美區 App Store 免費榜。更關鍵的是,Sora 2 在物理模擬和音畫同步上大幅進步,藝術體操動作不再崩壞,海浪聲與街頭噪音也精準還原。但你想過沒有?生成一分鐘這樣的視頻,算力消耗是 GPT-4 的幾十倍。如果沒有英偉達那 400 萬 GPU 的儲備,這些功能根本不敢上線。 光有C端APP還不夠,生態才是關鍵。10 月 6 日的開發者日上,Altman放了組數據:ChatGPT 周活用戶達 8 億,吸引了400 萬開發者,API每分鐘處理60億個token。為了留住這些人,他們推出了Apps SDK,相當於給ChatGPT裝了“應用商店”,開發者能接入自己的數據,還能嵌入視頻播放器等組件;更重磅的是,Sora 2的API也開放測試,把最強的視頻生成能力直接給開發者用。 那資本為什麽偏偏這時候用腳投票,讓它估值沖到5000億?要知道年初OpenAI估值才3000億,當時的老大還是估值4000億的SpaceX,關鍵就在於“算力-產品-流量-收入”這個閉環,正在被 OpenAI 跑通。 OpenAI 2023年才第一次季度盈利,但2025年上半年營收就破了40億美元,全年預計能到130億,增速比航天行業快了近3倍。現在GPT-5能幫醫院看片子、幫工廠做設計,B端的錢源源不斷進來;Sora 2 則借助 C 端 APP 拉新,未來廣告、訂閱、IP分成都是增長點。更重要的是,OpenAI敢把近一半收入砸在算力上,2030年研發投入預計接近營收50%,比谷歌、Meta都高得多。資本賭的不是現在,而是算力砸出來的未來——畢竟AI行業估值增速35%,航天才12%,換你也會選這條賽道。 說到這你可能會問,那OpenAI既然有了英偉達,還入股AMD幹什麽?這才是最妙的一步。英偉達那1000億是長期綁定,但數據中心2026年才開始部署,Sora 2現在的創作需求就耗大量算力,總不能讓布局等硬件。 所以OpenAI拿了AMD的認股權證,有望持股 10%,條件是未來部署6吉瓦的AMD GPU,2026年先啟動1吉瓦。一邊靠英偉達建長期護城河,一邊用AMD補短期缺口,等於給算力上了雙保險。從9月綁定英偉達,到10月發產品、開生態、穩資本、補算力,這幾步環環相扣,全是為“AI操作系統”鋪路。 不過,OpenAI這事並不是沒有挑戰。Sora 2再強大,身份冒用、版權爭議的坑還是躲不開,迪士尼已經明確退出版權授權,好萊塢也在密切關注。所以現在就算加了水印,真正的博弈也才剛剛開始。 但不管怎麽說,OpenAI已經把AI競爭拉到了新維度。過去大家拼模型強弱,現在是比誰先建好“算力-產品-生態-收入”的閉環。把Sora 2做成TikTok式的C端APP,看似是產品形態的轉變,實則是完善閉環的關鍵一步。5000億估值不是終點,而是給整個行業立了標桿,技術再強,有算力托底、有生態落地、能持續運轉才是真本事。未來幾年,AI將會從偶爾用的工具,變成你生活中的水、電、煤氣,生活里的各種問題,都可能會有更簡單、更高效的AI方案。

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